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Mortality, fertility and old age care in a two-sex growth model

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Author Info
Leif Andreassen () (Statistics Norway)
Abstract

The paper discusses the importance of decreasing mortality in explaining demographic change over the last century. A two-sex overlapping generations model is used where care both for children and the elderly is modeled. Assuming that the main costs of care are tied to time use (and thereby fairly invariant to income changes), the paper illustrates how exogenous changes in mortality, the cost of children and the bargaining power of women can explain fluctuations in both the level and timing of births. The interaction between declining mortality and the expansion of care for the elderly is of special importance. As a consequence, mortality affects fertility differently according to how much the government sector has expanded and how much human capital has been accumulated. At an early development stage, when public care is little developed, the effect of decreasing mortality on fertility is found to be positive, while at a later stage, with higher levels of public care, the effect is found to be negative.

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Paper provided by Research Department of Statistics Norway in its series Discussion Papers with number 378.

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Date of creation: May 2004
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Handle: RePEc:ssb:dispap:378

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Related research
Keywords: mortality; fertility; old age care; olg;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
D1 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior
D9 - Microeconomics - - Intertemporal Choice and Growth
J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics

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  1. Gary S. Becker & Kevin M. Murphy & Robert Tamura, . "Human Capital, Fertility, and Economic Growth," University of Chicago - Population Research Center 90-5a, Chicago - Population Research Center. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Cristino R. Arroyo & Junsen Zhang, 1997. "Dynamic microeconomic models of fertility choice: A survey," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 10(1), pages 23-65. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Jovanovic, Boyan, 1979. "Job Matching and the Theory of Turnover," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(5), pages 972-90, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Zhang, Junsen & Zhang, Jie & Lee, Ronald, 2001. "Mortality decline and long-run economic growth," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(3), pages 485-507, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Blackburn, Keith & Cipriani, Giam Pietro, 2002. "A model of longevity, fertility and growth," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 187-204, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Arrondel, Luc & Masson, Andre, 2001. " Family Transfers Involving Three Generations," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 103(3), pages 415-43, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Galor, Oded & Tsiddon, Daniel, 1997. " The Distribution of Human Capital and Economic Growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 2(1), pages 93-124, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Aiyagari, S.R. & Greenwood, J. & Guner, N., 1999. "On the State of the Union," RCER Working Papers 462, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
    Other versions:
  9. Joseph Hotz, V. & Klerman, Jacob Alex & Willis, Robert J., 1993. "The economics of fertility in developed countries," Handbook of Population and Family Economics, in: M. R. Rosenzweig & Stark, O. (ed.), Handbook of Population and Family Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 7, pages 275-347 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Akira Yakita, 2001. "Uncertain lifetime, fertility and social security," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 14(4), pages 635-640. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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