PPP-correction of the IPCC emission scenarios - does it matter?
AbstractIan Castles and David Henderson have criticized IPCC’s Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) (IPCC, 2000) for using market exchange rates (MER) instead of purchasing power parities (PPP) when converting regional GDP into a common denominator. The consequence is that poor countries generally appear to be poorer than they actually are. An overstated income gap between rich and poor countries in the base year gives rise to projections of too high economic growth in the poor countries because the scenarios are constructed with the aim of reducing the income gap. Castles and Henderson claim that overstated economic growth means that greenhouse gas emissions are overstated as well. However, because closure of the emission intensity gap between the rich and the poor parts of the world is another important driving force in the scenarios, we argue that the use of MER in the SRES scenarios has not caused an overestimation of the global emission growth because the two types of errors effectively neutralize one another.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Research Department of Statistics Norway in its series Discussion Papers with number 366.
Date of creation: Feb 2004
Date of revision:
Global warming; Emission scenarios; IPCC; PPP.;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- Q30 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - General
- Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
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- Manne, Alan S. & Richels, Richard G., 2003. "Market Exchange Rates or Purchasing Power Parity: Does the Choice Make a Difference to the Climate Debate?," Working paper 286, Regulation2point0.
- Bjart Holtsmark, 2005. "Global per capita CO2 emissions - stable in the long run?," Discussion Papers 438, Research Department of Statistics Norway.
- McKibbin, Warwick J. & Pearce, David & Stegman, Alison, 2007. "Long term projections of carbon emissions," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 637-653.
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