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Quantifying Central Hypotheses on Environmental Kuznets Curves for a Rich Economy: A Computable General Equilibrium Study

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  • Annegrete Bruvoll
  • Taran Fæhn
  • Birger Strøm

    ()
    (Statistics Norway)

Abstract

We investigate whether the future relationships between several pollutants and per capita income in rich countries may assume the inverted U-forms of Environmental Kuznets Curves (EKC). The emission-augmenting effect of scaling up aggregate economic activity may be counteracted by greener composition of production and consumption, technological progress, and increased demand for environmental quality and policy. To quantify the importance of these central hypotheses, we use a CGE model with endogenous policy for Norway. Our results suggest significant future effects of all these three counteracting mechanisms. For most local and regional pollutants, they may be strong enough to prolong the falling emission trends. However, we cannot rely on reductions in emissions of climate gases and some transport-related local pollutants. Our results also indicate that pollution leakages abroad are likely to find place.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Research Department of Statistics Norway in its series Discussion Papers with number 341.

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Date of creation: Feb 2003
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Handle: RePEc:ssb:dispap:341

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Keywords: The Environmental Kuznets Curve; Endogenous Policy; Climate policy; Dynamic CGE Model.;

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References

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  1. Terry Barker, 1999. "Achieving a 10% Cut in Europe's Carbon Dioxide Emissions using Additional Excise Duties: Coordinated, Uncoordinated and Unilateral Action using the Econometric Model E3ME," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(4), pages 401-422.
  2. Robert E. B. Lucas, 1994. "International Environmental Indicators: Trade, Income and Endowments," Boston University - Institute for Economic Development 46, Boston University, Institute for Economic Development.
  3. Simone Borghesi, 1999. "The Environmental Kuznets Curve: a Survey of the Literature," Working Papers 1999.85, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  4. Grossman, Gene & Krueger, Alan B, 1992. "Environmental Impacts of a North American Free Trade Agreement," CEPR Discussion Papers 644, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Selden Thomas M. & Song Daqing, 1994. "Environmental Quality and Development: Is There a Kuznets Curve for Air Pollution Emissions?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 147-162, September.
  6. Grossman, Gene M & Krueger, Alan B, 1995. "Economic Growth and the Environment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(2), pages 353-77, May.
  7. Larry E. Jones & Rodolfo E. Manuelli, 2001. "Endogenous Policy Choice: The Case of Pollution and Growth," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 4(2), pages 369-405, July.
  8. Douglas Holtz-Eakin & Thomas M. Selden, 1992. "Stoking the Fires? Co2 Emissions and Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 4248, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Annegrete Bruvoll & Hege Medin, 2000. "Factoring the environmental Kuznets curve Evidence from Norway," Discussion Papers 275, Research Department of Statistics Norway.
  10. Steigum, E.Jr., 1992. "Accounting for Long-Run Effects of Fiscal Policy by Means of Computable Overlapping Generations Models," Papers 05-92, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration-.
  11. Ansuategi, Alberto & Escapa, Marta, 2002. "Economic growth and greenhouse gas emissions," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 23-37, January.
  12. Anderson, Dennis & Cavendish, William, 2001. "Dynamic Simulation and Environmental Policy Analysis: Beyond Comparative Statistics and the Environmental Kuznets Curve," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 53(4), pages 721-46, October.
  13. De Bruyn, Sander M., 1997. "Explaining the environmental Kuznets curve: structural change and international agreements in reducing sulphur emissions," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 2(04), pages 485-503, November.
  14. Bruvoll, Annegrete & Larsen, Bodil Merethe, 2004. "Greenhouse gas emissions in Norway: do carbon taxes work?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 493-505, March.
  15. Heinz Jansen, 2001. "Induced Institutional Change in the Trade and Environment Debate," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 18(2), pages 149-172, February.
  16. Agras, Jean & Chapman, Duane, 1999. "A dynamic approach to the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 267-277, February.
  17. Suri, Vivek & Chapman, Duane, 1998. "Economic growth, trade and energy: implications for the environmental Kuznets curve," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 195-208, May.
  18. Bengt Kristrom & Pere Riera, 1996. "Is the income elasticity of environmental improvements less than one?," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 7(1), pages 45-55, January.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. De, Fence Janine & Hanley, Nicholas & Turner, Karen, 2009. "Do productivity improvements move us along the environmental Kuznets C urve?," Stirling Economics Discussion Papers 2009-02, University of Stirling, Division of Economics.
  2. Turner, Karen & Hanley, Nick, 2011. "Energy efficiency, rebound effects and the environmental Kuznets Curve," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 709-720, September.
  3. Caviglia-Harris, Jill L. & Chambers, Dustin & Kahn, James R., 2009. "Taking the "U" out of Kuznets: A comprehensive analysis of the EKC and environmental degradation," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(4), pages 1149-1159, February.
  4. Bruvoll, Annegrete & Faehn, Taran, 2006. "Transboundary effects of environmental policy: Markets and emission leakages," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(4), pages 499-510, October.
  5. David I. Stern, 2003. "The Rise and Fall of the Environmental Kuznets Curve," Rensselaer Working Papers in Economics 0302, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Department of Economics.
  6. Van Hoa, Tran & Limskul, Kitti, 2013. "Economic impact of CO2 emissions on Thailand's growth and climate change mitigation policy: A modelling analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 651-658.
  7. Fæhn, Taran & Bruvoll, Annegrete, 2009. "Richer and cleaner--At others' expense?," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 103-122, May.

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