The Duhem-Quine thesis asserts that any empirical evaluation of a theory is in fact a composite test of several interconnected hypotheses. Recalcitrant evidence signals falsity within the conjunction of hypotheses, but logic alone cannot pinpoint the individual element(s) inside the theoretical cluster responsible for a false prediction. This paper considers the relevance of the Duhem-Quine thesis for experimental economics. A starting point is to detail how laboratory evaluations of economic hypotheses constitute composite tests. Another aim is to scrutinize the strategy of conducting a series of experiments in order to hem in the source(s) of disconfirmative evidence. A Bayesian approach is employed to argue that reproducing experiments is not necessarily useful in terms of identifying correct causes of recalcitrant data.
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Paper provided by Research Department of Statistics Norway in its series Discussion Papers with number
329.
Find related papers by JEL classification: B41 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Economic Methodology - - - Economic Methodology C90 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - General
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