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Modeling Industrial Evolution in Geographical Space

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Author Info
Giulio Bottazzi
Giovanni Dosi
Giorgio Fagiolo
Angelo Secchi

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Abstract

In this paper we study a class of evolutionary models of industrial agglomeration with local positive feedbacks, which allow for a wide set of empirically-testable implications. Their roots rest in the Generalized Polya Urn framework. Here, however, we build on a birth-death process over a finite number of locations and a finite population of firms. The process of selection among production sites that are heterogeneous in their ?intrinsic attractiveness? occurs under a regime of dynamic increasing returns depending on the number of firms already present in each location. The general model is presented together with a few examples of small economies which help to illustrate the properties of the model and characterize its asymptotic behavior. Finally, we discuss a number of empirical applications of our theoretical framework. The basic model, once taken to the data, is able to empirically disentangle the relative strength of technologically-specific agglomeration drivers (affecting differently firms belonging to different industrial sectors in each location) from site-specific geographical forces (horizontally acting upon all sectors in each location).

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Paper provided by Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy in its series LEM Papers Series with number 2007/06.

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Date of creation: 01 Mar 2007
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Handle: RePEc:ssa:lemwps:2007/06

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Related research
Keywords: Industrial Location; Agglomeration; Dynamic Increasing Returns; Markov Chains; Polya Urns.;

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  1. Eric Bartelsman & Stefano Scarpetta & Fabiano Schivardi, 2005. "Comparative analysis of firm demographics and survival: evidence from micro-level sources in OECD countries," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press, vol. 14(3), pages 365-391, June.
  2. Rysman, Marc & Greenstein, Shane, 2005. "Testing for agglomeration and dispersion," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 86(3), pages 405-411, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Bresnahan, Timothy F & Gambardella, Alfonso & Saxenian, AnnaLee, 2001. "'Old Economy' Inputs for 'New Economy' Outcomes: Cluster Formation in the New Silicon Valleys," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press, vol. 10(4), pages 835-60, December.
  4. Giulio Bottazzi & Giovanni Dosi & Giorgio Fagiolo & Angelo Secchi, 2004. "Sectoral and Geographical Specificities in the Spatial Structure of Economic Activities," LEM Papers Series 2004/21, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Arthur, W. Brian, 1990. "'Silicon Valley' locational clusters: when do increasing returns imply monopoly?," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 235-251, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Ron Martin & Peter Sunley, 2006. "Path Dependence and Regional Economic Evolution," Papers in Evolutionary Economic Geography (PEEG) 0606, Utrecht University, Section of Economic Geography, revised Mar 2006. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Michael Storper & Anthony J. Venables, 2004. "Buzz: face-to-face contact and the urban economy," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 4(4), pages 351-370, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Michael Devereux & Rachel Griffith & Helen Simpson, 1999. "The geographic distribution of production activity in the UK," IFS Working Papers W99/26, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
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  9. Brakman, Steven & Garretsen, Harry, 2006. "New economic geography: Closing the gap between theory and empirics," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 569-572, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Masahisa Fujita & Paul Krugman & Anthony J. Venables, 2001. "The Spatial Economy: Cities, Regions, and International Trade," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262561476.
  11. Krugman, Paul, 1991. "Increasing Returns and Economic Geography," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(3), pages 483-99, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Glenn Ellison & Edward L. Glaeser, 1999. "The Geographic Concentration of Industry: Does Natural Advantage Explain Agglomeration?," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1862, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
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  13. Sydney Winter & Giovanni Dosi, 2000. "Interpreting Economic Change: Evolution, Structures and Games," LEM Papers Series 2000/08, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy. [Downloadable!]
  14. T. Brenner, 2003. "An Identification of Local Industrial Clusters in Germany," Papers on Economics and Evolution 2003-04, Max Planck Institute of Economics, Evolutionary Economics Group.
  15. Maurel, Francoise & Sedillot, Beatrice, 1999. "A measure of the geographic concentration in french manufacturing industries," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 575-604, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Combes, Pierre-Philippe & Overman, Henry G., 2004. "The spatial distribution of economic activities in the European Union," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, in: J. V. Henderson & J. F. Thisse (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 64, pages 2845-2909 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Guy Dumais & Glenn Ellison & Edward L. Glaeser, 2002. "Geographic Concentration As A Dynamic Process," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(2), pages 193-204, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Brusco, Sebastiano, 1982. "The Emilian Model: Productive Decentralisation and Social Integration," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 6(2), pages 167-84, June.
  19. Jaffe, Adam B & Trajtenberg, Manuel & Henderson, Rebecca, 1993. "Geographic Localization of Knowledge Spillovers as Evidenced by Patent Citations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 108(3), pages 577-98, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  20. James D. Adams, 2002. "Comparative localization of academic and industrial spillovers," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 2(3), pages 253-278, July.
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  21. Ron A. Boschma & Koen Frenken, 2006. "Why is economic geography not an evolutionary science? Towards an evolutionary economic geography," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 6(3), pages 273-302, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  22. Dosi, Giovanni & Ermoliev, Yuri & Kaniovski, Yuri, 1994. "Generalized urn schemes and technological dynamics," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 1-19, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  23. Klepper, Steven, 2001. "Employee Startups in High-Tech Industries," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press, vol. 10(3), pages 639-74, September.
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Stefania Vitali & Mauro Napoletano & Giorgio Fagiolo, 2009. "Spatial Localization in Manufacturing: A Cross-Country Analysis," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2009-07, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Giulio Bottazzi & Pietro Dindo, 2008. "An evolutionary model of firms location with technological externalities," LEM Papers Series 2008/27, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy. [Downloadable!]
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