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Modeling Industrial Evolution in Geographical Space

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  • Giulio Bottazzi
  • Giovanni Dosi
  • Giorgio Fagiolo
  • Angelo Secchi

Abstract

In this paper we study a class of evolutionary models of industrial agglomeration with local positive feedbacks, which allow for a wide set of empirically-testable implications. Their roots rest in the Generalized Polya Urn framework. Here, however, we build on a birth-death process over a finite number of locations and a finite population of firms. The process of selection among production sites that are heterogeneous in their ?intrinsic attractiveness? occurs under a regime of dynamic increasing returns depending on the number of firms already present in each location. The general model is presented together with a few examples of small economies which help to illustrate the properties of the model and characterize its asymptotic behavior. Finally, we discuss a number of empirical applications of our theoretical framework. The basic model, once taken to the data, is able to empirically disentangle the relative strength of technologically-specific agglomeration drivers (affecting differently firms belonging to different industrial sectors in each location) from site-specific geographical forces (horizontally acting upon all sectors in each location).

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy in its series LEM Papers Series with number 2007/06.

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Date of creation: 01 Mar 2007
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Handle: RePEc:ssa:lemwps:2007/06

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Keywords: Industrial Location; Agglomeration; Dynamic Increasing Returns; Markov Chains; Polya Urns.;

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References

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  14. Combes, Pierre-Philippe & Overman, Henry G., 2004. "The spatial distribution of economic activities in the European Union," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, in: J. V. Henderson & J. F. Thisse (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 64, pages 2845-2909 Elsevier.
  15. Giulio Bottazzi & Angelo Secchi, 2007. "Repeated Choices under Dynamic Externalities," LEM Papers Series 2007/08, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
  16. T. Brenner, 2003. "An Identification of Local Industrial Clusters in Germany," Papers on Economics and Evolution 2003-04, Philipps University Marburg, Department of Geography.
  17. Eric Bartelsman & Stefano Scarpetta & Fabiano Schivardi, 2005. "Comparative analysis of firm demographics and survival: evidence from micro-level sources in OECD countries," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press, vol. 14(3), pages 365-391, June.
  18. Giulio Bottazzi & Giovanni Dosi & Giorgio Fagiolo & Angelo Secchi, 2004. "Sectoral and Geographical Specificities in the Spatial Structure of Economic Activities," LEM Papers Series 2004/21, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
  19. Ron Martin & Peter Sunley, 2006. "Path Dependence and Regional Economic Evolution," Papers in Evolutionary Economic Geography (PEEG) 0606, Utrecht University, Section of Economic Geography, revised Mar 2006.
  20. Masahisa Fujita & Paul Krugman & Anthony J. Venables, 2001. "The Spatial Economy: Cities, Regions, and International Trade," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262561476, December.
  21. Jaffe, A.B. & Trajtenberg, M., 1992. "Geographic Localization of Knowledge Spillovers as Evidenced by Patent Citations," Papers 14-92, Tel Aviv.
  22. Sydney Winter & Giovanni Dosi, 2000. "Interpreting Economic Change: Evolution, Structures and Games," LEM Papers Series 2000/08, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
  23. Bresnahan, Timothy F & Gambardella, Alfonso & Saxenian, AnnaLee, 2001. "'Old Economy' Inputs for 'New Economy' Outcomes: Cluster Formation in the New Silicon Valleys," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press, vol. 10(4), pages 835-60, December.
  24. Dosi, Giovanni & Ermoliev, Yuri & Kaniovski, Yuri, 1994. "Generalized urn schemes and technological dynamics," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 1-19, January.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Stefania Vitali & Mauro Napoletano & Giorgio Fagiolo, 2009. "Spatial Localization in Manufacturing: A Cross-Country Analysis," Papers in Evolutionary Economic Geography (PEEG) 0906, Utrecht University, Section of Economic Geography, revised Jun 2009.
  2. Giulio Bottazzi & Angelo Secchi, 2007. "Repeated Choices under Dynamic Externalities," LEM Papers Series 2007/08, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
  3. Bottazzi, Giulio & Dosi, Giovanni & Fagiolo, Giorgio & Secchi, Angelo, 2008. "Sectoral and geographical specificities in the spatial structure of economic activities," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 189-202, September.
  4. Giulio Bottazzi & Pietro Dindo, 2008. "An evolutionary model of firms location with technological externalities," LEM Papers Series 2008/27, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
  5. Giulio Bottazzi & Ugo Gragnolati & Fabio Vanni, 2014. "A numerical estimation method for discrete choice models with non-linear externalities," LEM Papers Series 2014/01, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.

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