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PECO : au ralenti

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  • Marion Cochard

    (OFCE)

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    Abstract

    Le ralentissement de l’activité s’est poursuivi dans les pays d’Europe centrale et orientale au second semestre 2012, à la fois du fait de l’intégration commerciale et financière avec la zone euro et des politiques de restriction budgétaire. À la fin de l’année 2012, aucun pays de la zone, à l’exception de la Pologne, n’avait retrouvé son niveau d’activité d’avant-crise. La persistance d’indicateurs conjoncturels au plus bas et de perspectives moroses pour la zone euro annoncent une année 2013 à l’image de 2012 (+0,7 % en 2012 sur l’ensemble de la zone), avant un léger mieux en 2014. Toujours tirée par le haut niveau du prix des matières premières, la Russie devra quant à elle faire face à un risque de surchauffe en limitant l’accès au crédit, ralentissant ainsi la croissance en dessous de 4 % à l’horizon de la prévision.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Sciences Po in its series Sciences Po publications with number info:hdl:2441/7o52iohb7k6srk09n2so32i36.

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    Date of creation: May 2013
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    Publication status: Published in Revue de l'OFCE - Analyse et prévisions, 2013, pp.209-212
    Handle: RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/7o52iohb7k6srk09n2so32i36

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