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Is There an Alternative Strategy for Reducing Public Debt by 2032?

Author

Listed:
  • Christophe Blot

    (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques)

  • Marion Cochard
  • Jérôme Creel

    (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques)

  • Bruno Ducoudre

    (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques)

  • Danielle Schweisguth

    (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques)

  • Xavier Timbeau

    (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques)

Abstract

The German debt brake is often regarded as a great success story and has therefore served as a role model for the Euro area and it’s Fiscal Compact. In this paper we fundamentally criticise the debt brake. Firstly, we show that it suffers from serious shortcomings and that its success is far from certain even from a mainstream point of view. Secondly, we show that, from a Post-Keynesian perspective, the debt brake completely neglects the require- ments for fiscal policies of member countries in a currency union like the Euro area. It will prevent fiscal policy from contributing to the necessary rebalancing in the Euro area. Thirdly, we show that alternative scenarios, which could avoid the deflationary pressures of the German Debt Brake on domestic demand and contribute to internally rebalancing the Euro area, are extremely unlikely as they would have to rely on unrealistic shifts in the functional income distribution and/or investment and savings behaviour in Germany.

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  • Christophe Blot & Marion Cochard & Jérôme Creel & Bruno Ducoudre & Danielle Schweisguth & Xavier Timbeau, 2014. "Is There an Alternative Strategy for Reducing Public Debt by 2032?," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/6fiderh62j8, Sciences Po.
    • Handle: RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/6fiderh62j8n1au8s8acc66css
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Public debt; Growth; European macroeconomic policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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