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L’immatérielle richesse des nations

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  • Thomas Melonio

    (Agence Française de Développement)

  • Xavier Timbeau

    (OFCE)

Abstract

Le capital humain joue un rôle croissant dans les économies modernes, incitant les nations à y consacrer une part croissante de leur PIB. Les dépenses publiques d’éducation constituent pour les États un investissement, puisqu’elles sont sources, à terme, de croissance économique et de recettes fiscales. L’investissement public en éducation devrait donc donner lieu à la constitution d’un actif. Ce n’est aujourd’hui pas le cas. Cet article tente d’y remédier et propose deux méthodes d’évaluation du capital éducatif français depuis les années 1970. La première approche s’inspire de la comptabilité traditionnelle des entreprises : l’actif éducatif est valorisé en fonction du coût de sa constitution, et se déprécie au cours du temps. La seconde méthode assimile l’État à un optimisateur fiscal et valorise le capital éducatif par les flux futurs anticipés de recettes fiscales. Dans les deux cas, nous constatons une forte augmentation du capital éducatif français depuis le début des années 1970, d’environ 60 points de PIB, pour culminer autour de 140 points de PIB au début des années 2000. Ceci s’explique avant tout par la progression du niveau des diplômes, mais aussi par l’accroissement de la taille moyenne des cohortes. En projection, nous estimons que ce stock a atteint un plafond, et devrait progresser modestement dans les vingt prochaines années avant de décliner sous l’effet du rétrécissement de la taille des cohortes et de la stagnation observée du niveau des diplômes.

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Paper provided by Sciences Po in its series Sciences Po publications with number info:hdl:2441/1754.

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Date of creation: Apr 2006
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Publication status: Published in Revue de l'OFCE, 2006, pp.329-363
Handle: RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/1754

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  1. Jacob A. Mincer, 1974. "Age and Experience Profiles of Earnings," NBER Chapters, in: Schooling, Experience, and Earnings, pages 64-82 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Enrico Moretti, 2002. "Estimating the Social Return to Higher Education: Evidence From Longitudinal and Repeated Cross-Sectional Data," NBER Working Papers 9108, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Cited by:
  1. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/5l6uh8ogmqildh09h84a0it2m is not listed on IDEAS
  2. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/eu4vqp9ompqllr09hi4j70a29 is not listed on IDEAS
  3. Thomas Melonio & Xavier Timbeau & Guillaume Allegre, 2010. "Dépenses publiques d’éducation et inégalités Une perspective de cycle de vie," Sciences Po publications 2010-06, Sciences Po.
  4. Céline Antonin & Thomas Melonio & Xavier Timbeau, 2011. "L’épargne nette ré-ajustée," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/eu4vqp9ompq, Sciences Po.

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