Ruud A. de Mooij () (CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, Erasmus University Rotterdam, CESifo and Tinbergen Institute.) Gaëtan Nicodème () (Centre Emile Bernheim, Solvay Business School, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Brussels and European Commission.)
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In Europe, declining corporate tax rates have come along with rising tax-to-GDP ratios. This paper explores to what extent income shifting from the personal to the corporate tax base can explain these diverging developments. We exploit a panel of European data on legal form of business to analyze income shifting via incorporation. The results suggest that the effect is significant and large. It implies that the revenue effects of lower corporate tax rates – possibly induced by tax competition -- will partly show up in lower personal tax revenues rather than lower corporate tax revenues. Simulations suggest that between 10% and 17% of corporate tax revenue can be attributed to income shifting. Income shifting is found to have raised the corporate tax-to-GDP ratio by some 0.2%-points since the early 1990s.
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Paper provided by Université Libre de Bruxelles, Solvay Brussels School of Economics and Management, Centre Emile Bernheim (CEB) in its series Working Papers CEB with number
07-016.RS.
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