Foreign currency returns and systematic risks
AbstractThe decomposition of the market return into its cash-flow and discount-rate news driven components reveals that excess returns on low forward discount currency portfolios load positively on "good" news about the stock market's discount rates while high forward discount currencies load negatively on this news. Average currency portfolio returns are hence explained by different sensitivities to discount-rate news. A two-beta version of the CAPM, distinguishing between cash-flow and discount-rate betas, is able to price both currency and stock portfolio returns at the same time. Finally, we find that the relation between stock market news and foreign currency returns varies across the two either discount-rate news or both discount-rate and cash-flow news driven stock market booms of the past two decades.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Swiss National Bank in its series Working Papers with number 2011-03.
Length: 39 pages
Date of creation: 2011
Date of revision:
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Currency returns; cash-flow news; discount-rate news; market return; UIP;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
- F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2011-04-09 (All new papers)
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- Adrien Verdelhan, 2012. "The Share of Systematic Variation in Bilateral Exchange Rates," 2012 Meeting Papers 763, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Thomas Nitschka, 2014. "The Good? The Bad? The Ugly? Which news drive (co)variation in Swiss and US bond and stock excess returns?," Working Papers 2014-01, Swiss National Bank.
- Victoria Galsband & Thomas Nitschka, 2013. "Currency excess returns and global downside market risk," Working Papers 2013-07, Swiss National Bank.
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