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Foreign currency returns and systematic risks

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Author Info

  • Victoria Galsband
  • Thomas Nitschka

Abstract

The decomposition of the market return into its cash-flow and discount-rate news driven components reveals that excess returns on low forward discount currency portfolios load positively on "good" news about the stock market's discount rates while high forward discount currencies load negatively on this news. Average currency portfolio returns are hence explained by different sensitivities to discount-rate news. A two-beta version of the CAPM, distinguishing between cash-flow and discount-rate betas, is able to price both currency and stock portfolio returns at the same time. Finally, we find that the relation between stock market news and foreign currency returns varies across the two either discount-rate news or both discount-rate and cash-flow news driven stock market booms of the past two decades.

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File URL: http://www.snb.ch/n/mmr/reference/working_paper_2011_03/source/working_paper_2011_03.n.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Swiss National Bank in its series Working Papers with number 2011-03.

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Length: 39 pages
Date of creation: 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:snb:snbwpa:2011-03

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Related research

Keywords: Currency returns; cash-flow news; discount-rate news; market return; UIP;

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Cited by:
  1. Victoria Galsband & Thomas Nitschka, 2013. "Currency excess returns and global downside market risk," Working Papers 2013-07, Swiss National Bank.
  2. Adrien Verdelhan, 2012. "The Share of Systematic Variation in Bilateral Exchange Rates," 2012 Meeting Papers 763, Society for Economic Dynamics.

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