IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/snb/snbwpa/2008-14.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

What Drives the Swiss Franc?

Author

Listed:
  • Dr. Samuel Reynard

Abstract

This paper analyzes the behavior of the Swiss franc (CHF) over the past 35 years. It relates the evolution of the CHF exchange rates to economic fundamentals like the relative competitiveness of the Swiss export sector, accumulated current accounts, interest rate differentials and oil prices. Some factors like the introduction of the euro, a relative increase in Swiss domestic productivity and higher oil prices seem to have modified the CHF behavior in the last decade, but more data will be needed to draw definitive conclusions. The paper relies on different data sources and assesses potential exchange rate determinants under different angles. Overall, measurement and econometric issues would make it difficult to determine a unique econometric specification or specific values for equilibrium exchange rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Dr. Samuel Reynard, 2008. "What Drives the Swiss Franc?," Working Papers 2008-14, Swiss National Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:snb:snbwpa:2008-14
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/research/working-papers/2008/working_paper_2008_14
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    • Samuel Reynard, 2009. "What Drives the Swiss Franc?," Aussenwirtschaft, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science, Swiss Institute for International Economics and Applied Economics Research, vol. 64(03), pages 335-363, December.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Balázs Égert & László Halpern & Ronald MacDonald, 2006. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Economies: Taking Stock of the Issues," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(2), pages 257-324, April.
    2. Francisco Maeso–Fernandez & Chiara Osbat & Bernd Schnatz, 2002. "Determinants of the Euro Real Effective Exchange Rate: A BEER/PEER Approach," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(4), pages 437-461, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Nils Herger, 2012. "Exchange Rates and Import Prices in Switzerland," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 148(III), pages 381-407, September.
    2. Rimgailaite, Ramune, 2012. "Exchange rate modelling for Lithuania and Switzerland," MPRA Paper 43451, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Konrad Adler & Dr. Christian Grisse, 2014. "Real exchange rates and fundamentals: robustness across alternative model specifications," Working Papers 2014-07, Swiss National Bank.
    4. Jean-Marc Natal & Tommaso Mancini Griffoli & Christoph Meyer & Attilio Zanetti, 2015. "Determinants of the Swiss Franc Real Exchange Rate," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 151(IV), pages 299-331, December.
    5. Jarko Fidrmuc, 2010. "Time-Varying Exchange Rate Basket in China from 2005 to 2009," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 52(4), pages 515-529, December.
    6. Pavel Trunin & Sergey Narkevich, 2013. "Prospects for the Russian Ruble to Become Regional Reserve Currency," Working Papers 118, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, revised 2015.
    7. Gaetano, D'Adamo, 2009. "Measuring exchange rate flexibility in Europe," MPRA Paper 26612, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Dr. Fabian Fink & Dr. Lukas Frei & Dr. Oliver Gloede, 2020. "Short-term determinants of bilateral exchange rates: A decomposition model for the Swiss franc," Working Papers 2020-21, Swiss National Bank.
    9. Johannes Eugster & Giovanni Donato, 2022. "The exchange rate elasticity of the Swiss current account," Working Papers 2022-14, Swiss National Bank.
    10. Narkevich, Siarhei & Trunin, Pavel, 2013. "Prospects for the Russian Ruble as a Regional Reserve Currency," Published Papers dok2, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    11. Sergey Narkevich & Pavel Trunin, 2012. "Reserve Currencies: Factors of Evolution and their Role in the World Economy," Research Paper Series, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 162P.
    12. Konrad Adler & Christian Grisse, 2017. "Thousands of BEERs: Take your pick," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(5), pages 1078-1104, November.
    13. Fink, Fabian & Frei, Lukas & Gloede, Oliver, 2022. "Global risk sentiment and the Swiss franc: A time-varying daily factor decomposition model," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Khaled Chnaina & Farid Makhlouf, 2015. "Impact des Transferts de Fonds sur le Taux de Change Réel Effectif en Tunisie," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 27(2), pages 145-160, June.
    2. Chen, Xiaoshan & MacDonald, Ronald, 2015. "Measuring the dollar–euro permanent equilibrium exchange rate using the unobserved components model," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 20-35.
    3. Comunale, Mariarosaria, 2018. "Current account and real effective exchange rate misalignments in Central Eastern EU countries: An update using the macroeconomic balance approach," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 414-436.
    4. Pavel Trunin & Dmitriy Kniazev & Ekaterina Kuduykina, 2010. "Perspective issues in the CBR`s exchange rate policy," Research Paper Series, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 144P.
    5. Chen, Xiaoshan & MacDonald, Ronald, 2014. "Measuring the Euro-Dollar Permanent Equilibrium Exchange Rate using the Unobserved Components Model," Stirling Economics Discussion Papers 2014-12, University of Stirling, Division of Economics.
    6. Chen, Xiaoshan & MacDonald, Ronald, 2014. "Measuring the Euro-Dollar Permanent Equilibrium Exchange Rate using the Unobserved Components Model," 2007 Annual Meeting, July 29-August 1, 2007, Portland, Oregon TN 2015-05, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    7. Khaled Chnaina & Farid Makhlouf, 2012. "Impact des Transferts de Fonds sur le Taux de Change Réel Effectif en Tunisie," Working papers of CATT hal-01885155, HAL.
    8. Ahmed Derbali, 2021. "The misalignment of real effective exchange rate: Evidence from Tunisia," IHEID Working Papers 04-2021, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    9. Antonia López Villavicencio & Josep Lluís Raymond Bara, 2006. "The short and long-run determinants of the real exchange rate in Mexico," Working Papers wpdea0606, Department of Applied Economics at Universitat Autonoma of Barcelona.
    10. Balázs Égert, 2007. "Real Convergence, Price Level Convergence and Inflation in Europe," Working Papers 267, Bruegel.
    11. Balázs Égert, 2005. "Balassa-Samuelson Meets South Eastern Europe, the CIS and Turkey: A Close Encounter of the Third Kind?," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 2(2), pages 221-243, December.
    12. Mr. Juan Zalduendo, 2008. "Bivariate Assessments of Real Exchange Rates Using PPP Data," IMF Working Papers 2008/153, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Koedijk, Kees G. & Tims, Ben & van Dijk, Mathijs A., 2004. "Purchasing power parity and the euro area," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(7-8), pages 1081-1107.
    14. Reza Siregar & Ramkishen Rajan, 2006. "Models of Equilibrium Real Exchange Rates Revisited: A Selective Review of the Literature," Centre for International Economic Studies Working Papers 2006-04, University of Adelaide, Centre for International Economic Studies.
    15. Hulya Saygili & Mesut Saygili, 2011. "Testing Purchasing Power Parity for the New EU Members and Turkey : Panel Cointegration Analysis with Disaggregated CPI," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 11(2), pages 49-69.
    16. Koedijk, Kees G. & Tims, Ben & van Dijk, Mathijs A., 2011. "Why panel tests of purchasing power parity should allow for heterogeneous mean reversion," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 246-267, February.
    17. Kari Heimonen, 2006. "Time-Varying Fundamentals of the Euro-Dollar Exchange Rate," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(4), pages 385-407.
    18. Andrea Salazar-Díaz & Aarón Levi Garavito-Acosta & Sergio Restrepo Ángel & Leidy Viviana Arcila-Agudelo, 2023. "Real Equilibrium Exchange Rate in Colombia: Thousands of VEC Models Approach," Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, Departamento de Economía, issue 99, pages 33-78, July-Dece.
    19. Mariarosaria Comunale, 2015. "Current Account and Reer Misalignments in Central Eastern EU Countries: an Update Using the Macroeconomic Balance Approach," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 20, Bank of Lithuania.
    20. Jan Fil??cek & Roman Horv??th & Michal Skorepa, 2006. "Monetary Policy before Euro Adoption: Challenges for EU New Members," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp853, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Swiss franc; exchange rates; fundamentals;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:snb:snbwpa:2008-14. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Enzo Rossi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/snbgvch.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.