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Analysis and Insights from a Dynamical Model of Nuclear Plant Safety Risk

Author

Listed:
  • Stephen M. Hess

    (Sensortex, Inc.)

  • Alfonso M. Albano

    (School of Economics and Social Sciences, Singapore Management University)

  • John P. Gaertner

    (Electric Power Research Institute)

Abstract

In this paper, we expand upon previously reported results of a dynamical systems model for the impact of plant processes and programmatic performance on nuclear plant safety risk. We utilize both analytical techniques and numerical simulations typical of the analysis of nonlinear dynamical systems to obtain insights important for effective risk management. This includes use of bifurcation diagrams to show that period doubling bifurcations and regions of chaotic dynamics can occur. We also investigate the impact of risk mitigating functions (equipment reliability and loss prevention) on plant safety risk and demonstrate that these functions are capable of improving risk to levels that are better than those that are represented in a traditional risk assessment. Next, we analyze the system response to the presence of external noise and obtain some conclusions with respect to the allocation of resources to ensure that safety is maintained at optimal levels. In particular, we demonstrate that the model supports the importance of management and regulator attention to plants that have demonstrated poor performance by providing an external stimulus to obtain desired improvements. Equally important, the model suggests that excessive intervention, by either plant management or regulatory authorities, can have a deleterious impact on safety for plants that are operating with very effective programs and processes. Finally, we propose a modification to the model that accounts for the impact of plant risk culture on process performance and plant safety risk. We then use numerical simulations to demonstrate the important safety benefits of a strong risk culture.

Suggested Citation

  • Stephen M. Hess & Alfonso M. Albano & John P. Gaertner, 2005. "Analysis and Insights from a Dynamical Model of Nuclear Plant Safety Risk," Working Papers 14-2005, Singapore Management University, School of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:siu:wpaper:14-2005
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    File URL: https://mercury.smu.edu.sg/rsrchpubupload/5616/risk_model.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hess, Stephen M. & Albano, Alfonso M. & Gaertner, John P., 2005. "Development of a dynamical systems model of plant programmatic performance on nuclear power plant safety risk," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 62-74.
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    1. Hess, Stephen M. & Albano, Alfonso. M. & Gaertner, John P., 2007. "Analysis and insights from a dynamical model of nuclear plant safety risk," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 15-29.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Nonlinear Dynamical Systems; Process Model; Risk Management;
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