Modeling Transaction Data of Trade Direction and Estimation of Probability of Informed Trading
AbstractThis paper implements the Asymmetric Autoregressive Conditional Duration (AACD) model of Bauwens and Giot (2003) to analyze irregularly spaced transaction data of trade direction, namely buy versus sell orders. We examine the influence of lagged transaction duration, lagged volume and lagged trade direction on transaction duration and direction. Our results are applied to estimate the probability of informed trading (PIN) based on the Easley, Hvidkjaer and O’Hara (2002) framework. Unlike the Easley- Hvidkjaer-O’Hara model, which uses the daily aggregate number of buy and sell orders, the AACD model makes full use of transaction data and allows for interactions between buy and sell orders.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Singapore Management University, School of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 13-2007.
Length: 22 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2007
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in SMU Economics and Statistics Working Paper Series
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies
- G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
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