How does Risk-selection Respond to Risk-adjustment? Evidence from the Medicare Advantage Program
AbstractMedicare administers a traditional public fee-for-service (FFS) plan while also allowing enrolles to join government-funded private Medicare Advantage (MA) plans.We model how selection and differential payments - the value of the capitation payments the firm receives to insure an individual minus the counterfactual cost of his coverage in FFS - change after the introduction of a comprehensive risk adjustment formula in 2004. Our model predicts that firm screening efforts along dimensions included in the model ("extensive-margin" selection) should fall, whereas screening efforts along dimensions excluded ("intensive-margin" selection) should increase. These endogenous responses to the risk-adjustment formula can in fact lead differential payments to increase. Using individual-level administrative data on Medicare enrollees from 1994 to 2006, we show that while MA enrollees are positively selected throughout the sample period, after risk adjustment extensive-margin selection decreases whereas intensive-margin selection increases. We find that differential payments actually rise after risk-adjustment, and estimate that they totaled $23 billion in 2006, or about six percent of total Medicare spending.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research in its series Discussion Papers with number 10-024.
Date of creation: Apr 2011
Date of revision:
Health Care Markets;
Other versions of this item:
- Jason Brown & Mark Duggan & Ilyana Kuziemko & William Woolston, 2011. "How does Risk Selection Respond to Risk Adjustment? Evidence from the Medicare Advantage Program," NBER Working Papers 16977, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- I11 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Analysis of Health Care Markets
- I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
- H51 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Health
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