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Extremal behavior of aggregated economic processes in a structural growth model

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Author Info

  • Stéphane Auray

    ()
    (Université Lille 3 (GREMARS), Université de Sherbrooke (GREDI) and CIRPÉE)

  • Aurélien Eyquem

    ()
    (GATE, UMR 5824, Université de Lyon and Ecole Normale Supérieure Lettres et Sciences Humaines, France)

  • Frédéric Jouneau-Sion

    ()
    (Universites Lille Nord de France)

Abstract

This paper proposes a structural approach to growth modeling relying on random return scale. An RBC-like model in which return to scale may be strictly increasing or decreasing depending on shocks is explicitly derived. We show that relevant component of usual macroeconomic models (including capital, growth, various relative prices) are all related to a Random Autoregressive Coefficient model. Recent works on extreme behavior on dependent process emphasize some properties of this model that are worth from the economic viewpoint. First, this model typically displays fat tail behavior event if the shocks do not. Second, records (both historically high and low points) are less frequent than in the usual stationary case but tend to appear in cluster. We show that both fat tails and clustering of extreme values are consistent with arbitrarily small variations of the autoregressive coefficient around the usual unit-root case. As such, distinguishing RCA from a more usual constant autoregressive model from available macro data may then be difficult and typically require very long data set. To this end, we propose a direct test based on the annual sequence of real wages in England recorded since the XIII-th century onwards. The test clearly reject the constant AR model and supports the Random coefficient hypothesis.

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File URL: http://gredi.recherche.usherbrooke.ca/wpapers/GREDI-0917.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Departement d'Economique de la Faculte d'administration à l'Universite de Sherbrooke in its series Cahiers de recherche with number 09-17.

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Length: 23 pages
Date of creation: 01 Sep 2009
Date of revision: 10 Mar 2010
Handle: RePEc:shr:wpaper:09-17

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Keywords: Economic growth; extremal behavior; dependent processes;

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References

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  15. Hall, Robert E, 1978. "Stochastic Implications of the Life Cycle-Permanent Income Hypothesis: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(6), pages 971-87, December.
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