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A mailshot in the dark? The impact of the UK government's lea fet on the 2016 EU referendum

Author

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  • Harry Pickard

    (Department of Economics, University of Sheffield, UK)

Abstract

In this paper I explore the causal effect of exposure to the UK government’s mailshot on vote preference in the 2016 EU referendum. I find that exposure caused a drop in the probability of voting leave by 3 percentage points. The effect is stronger in individuals who were exposed to few other sources of referendum information. For instance, females and the risk averse were even less likely to vote leave after exposure. The effect was also larger for Conservative party supporters who consumed many other sources of information. The evidence is consistent with voters being liable to persuasion. On the mechanism, I show that exposed individuals experiencea “persuasion-through-knowledge” effect, which changes beliefs on topics of contention.

Suggested Citation

  • Harry Pickard, 2019. "A mailshot in the dark? The impact of the UK government's lea fet on the 2016 EU referendum," Working Papers 2019004, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:shf:wpaper:2019004
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    File URL: http://www.sheffield.ac.uk/economics/research/serps/articles/2019_004
    File Function: First version, February 2019
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Bove, Vincenzo & Efthyvoulou, Georgios & Pickard, Harry, 2019. "Did terrorism affect the Brexit vote?," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 415, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Mass media; Mailshot; Leaflet; European Union; Brexit;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • J10 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - General
    • L82 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Entertainment; Media

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