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Expectations, Reservation Wages And Employment: Evidence From British Panel Data

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  • Sarah Brown

    ()

  • Karl Taylor

    ()
    (Department of Economics, The University of Sheffield)

Abstract

In this paper, we explore the relationship between expectations and reservation wages for a sample of unemployed individuals using panel data drawn from the British Household Panel Survey, 1996 to 2005. To be specific, we initially investigate the determinants of expectations relating to the individual´s financial situation and employment prospects over the next 12 months. Our findings suggest that job search and education are positively associated with financial optimism and confidence regarding future employment prospects. Conversely, the length of time out of employment and age are associated with pessimistic expectations. Propensity score matching techniques enable us to adopt a quasi experimental approach to ascertain how an individual´s expectations regarding their future financial situation as well as expectations regarding securing future employment influence the setting of reservation wages at the individual level. Optimism over future finances and future job prospects are associated with a higher reservation wage in both the matched and unmatched estimates. Furthermore, confidence over securing future employment is associated with a higher probability of actually gaining employment in the next period.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 2008007.

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Length: 24 pages
Date of creation: May 2008
Date of revision: May 2008
Handle: RePEc:shf:wpaper:2008007

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Keywords: Employment; Financial Expectations; Reservation Wages;

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References

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  1. Becker, Sascha O. & Caliendo, Marco, 2007. "mhbounds – Sensitivity Analysis for Average Treatment Effects," IZA Discussion Papers 2542, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  2. Jyotsna Jalan & Martin Ravallion, 2000. "Estimating the Benefit Incidence of an Antipoverty Program by Propensity Score Matching," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0873, Econometric Society.
  3. Blackaby, David H. & Latreille, Paul L. & Murphy, Philip D. & O'Leary, Nigel C. & Sloane, Peter J., 2006. "An Analysis of Reservation Wages for the Economically Inactive," IZA Discussion Papers 1980, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  4. Heckman, James J & Ichimura, Hidehiko & Todd, Petra E, 1997. "Matching as an Econometric Evaluation Estimator: Evidence from Evaluating a Job Training Programme," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 64(4), pages 605-54, October.
  5. Sascha O. Becker & Andrea Ichino, 2002. "Estimation of average treatment effects based on propensity scores," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 2(4), pages 358-377, November.
  6. Sarah Brown & Stephen Pudney, 2005. "Hours Constraints and In-Work Poverty," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(3), pages 305-315, 07.
  7. Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski, 1994. "Using Expectations Data to Study Subjective Income Expectations," Econometrics 9411003, EconWPA.
  8. James Mitchell & Martin Weale, 2007. "The Rationality and Reliability of Expectations Reported by British Households: Micro Evidence from the British Household Panel Survey," NIESR Discussion Papers 287, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
  9. Lancaster, Tony & Chesher, Andrew, 1983. "An Econometric Analysis of Reservation Wages," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(6), pages 1661-76, November.
  10. Addison, John T. & Centeno, Mario & Portugal, Pedro, 2008. "Unemployment Benefits and Reservation Wages: Key Elasticities from a Stripped-Down Job Search Approach," IZA Discussion Papers 3357, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  11. Sarah Brown & Karl Taylor & Gaia Garino & Stephen Wheatley Price, 2003. "Debt and financial expectations: an individual and household level analysis," Discussion Papers in Economics 03/5, Department of Economics, University of Leicester, revised Feb 2004.
  12. Charles F. Manski, 2004. "Measuring Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(5), pages 1329-1376, 09.
  13. Sarah Brown & Karl Taylor & Robert McNabb, 2006. "Financial Expectations, Consumption and Saving: A Microeconomic Analysis," Working Papers 2006006, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics, revised May 2006.
  14. Edwin Leuven & Barbara Sianesi, 2003. "PSMATCH2: Stata module to perform full Mahalanobis and propensity score matching, common support graphing, and covariate imbalance testing," Statistical Software Components S432001, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 12 Feb 2014.
  15. Sarah Brown & Gaia Garino & Karl Taylor, 2005. "Mortgages and Financial Expectations: A Household Level Analysis," Discussion Papers in Economics 05/9, Department of Economics, University of Leicester, revised Dec 2006.
  16. V. Joseph Hotz & Guido W. Imbens & Julie H. Mortimer, 1999. "Predicting the Efficacy of Future Training Programs Using Past Experiences," NBER Technical Working Papers 0238, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Barbara Sianesi, 2001. "Propensity score matching," United Kingdom Stata Users' Group Meetings 2001 12, Stata Users Group, revised 23 Aug 2001.
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