On the Properties of Regression Tests of Asset Return Predictability
AbstractThis paper investigates, both in finite samples and asymptotically, statistical inference on predictive regressions where time series are generated by present value models of asset prices. We show that regression-based tests, including robust tests such as robust conditional test and Q-test, are inconsistent and thus suffer from lack of power in local-to-unity models for the regressor persistence. The main reason is that the near-integrated regressor from the present value model slows down the convergence rates of the estimates, an effect which is masked in predictive regressions analysis with exogenous constant covariance of innovations. We illustrate these properties in a simulation study and analyze the predictability of several stock returns series.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Research Institute for Market Economy, Sogang University in its series Working Papers with number 1111.
Length: 33 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2011
Date of revision:
present value model; predictive regression; local-to-unity assumption; conditional test; Q-test; t-test.;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
- G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2011-11-28 (All new papers)
- NEP-ECM-2011-11-28 (Econometrics)
- NEP-FOR-2011-11-28 (Forecasting)
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- Seongman Moon & Carlos Velasco, 2011. "The Forward Discount Puzzle: Identi cation of Economic Assumptions," Working Papers 1112, Research Institute for Market Economy, Sogang University.
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