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Forecast Error Information and Heterogeneous Expectations in Learning-to-Forecast Experiments

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Abstract

This paper explores the importance of accessible and focal information in influencing beliefs and attention in a learning-to-forecast laboratory experiment where subjects are incentivized to form accurate expectations about inflation and the output gap. We consider the effects of salient and accessible forecast error information and learning on subjects' forecasting accuracy and heuristics, and on aggregate stability. Experimental evidence indicates that, while there is considerable heterogeneity in heuristics used, subjects' forecasts can be best described by a constant-gain learning model where subjects respond to forecast errors. Salient forecast error information reduces subjects' overreaction to their errors and leads to greater forecast accuracy, coordination of expectations and macroeconomic stability. The benefits of this focal information are short-lived and diminish with learning.

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  • Luba Petersen, 2014. "Forecast Error Information and Heterogeneous Expectations in Learning-to-Forecast Experiments," Discussion Papers dp14-05, Department of Economics, Simon Fraser University.
  • Handle: RePEc:sfu:sfudps:dp14-05
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    1. Maria Demertzis & Nicola Viegi, 2008. "Inflation Targets as Focal Points," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 4(1), pages 55-87, March.
    2. Klaus Adam, 2007. "Experimental Evidence on the Persistence of Output and Inflation," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 117(520), pages 603-636, April.
    3. Assenza, T. & Heemeijer, P. & Hommes, C.H. & Massaro, D., 2011. "Individual Expectations and Aggregate Macro Behavior," CeNDEF Working Papers 11-01, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
    4. Demertzis Maria & Viegi Nicola, 2009. "Inflation Targeting: A Framework for Communication," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 1-32, December.
    5. Blume, Andreas & Gneezy, Uri, 2000. "An Experimental Investigation of Optimal Learning in Coordination Games," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 161-172, January.
    6. John Duffy, 2008. "Macroeconomics: A Survey of Laboratory Research," Working Paper 334, Department of Economics, University of Pittsburgh, revised Jun 2014.
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    Cited by:

    1. Arifovic, Jasmina & Petersen, Luba, 2017. "Stabilizing expectations at the zero lower bound: Experimental evidence," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 21-43.
    2. Mauersberger, Felix, 2021. "Monetary policy rules in a non-rational world: A macroeconomic experiment," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    3. Cornand, Camille & Hubert, Paul, 2020. "On the external validity of experimental inflation forecasts: A comparison with five categories of field expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    4. Camille Cornand & Cheick Kader M’baye, 2018. "Band or point inflation targeting? An experimental approach," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 13(2), pages 283-309, July.
    5. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/7t8isspkbs8hk8kol9kk9sjdl6 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Luba Petersen & Jasmina Arifovic, 2015. "Escaping Expectations-Driven Liquidity Traps: Experimental Evidence," Discussion Papers dp15-03, Department of Economics, Simon Fraser University.
    7. Cornand, Camille & Hubert, Paul, 2022. "Information frictions across various types of inflation expectations," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    8. Fatemeh Mokhtarzadeh & Luba Petersen, 2017. "Coordinating expectations through central bank projections," Discussion Papers dp17-03, Department of Economics, Simon Fraser University.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    experimental macroeconomics; laboratory experiment; monetary policy; expectations; learning to forecast; availability heuristic; focal points; communication; rational inattention;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C92 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Group Behavior
    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • D50 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - General
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making

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