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Bubbles, crashes and intermittency in agent based market models

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  • Irene Giardina
  • Jean-Philippe Bouchaud

    (Science & Finance, Capital Fund Management
    CEA Saclay;)

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    Abstract

    We define and study a rather complex market model, inspired from the Santa Fe artificial market and the Minority Game. Agents have different strategies among which they can choose, according to their relative profitability, with the possibility of not participating to the market. The price is updated according to the excess demand, and the wealth of the agents is properly accounted for. Only two parameters play a significant role: one describes the impact of trading on the price, and the other describes the propensity of agents to be trend following or contrarian. We observe three different regimes, depending on the value of these two parameters: an oscillating phase with bubbles and crashes, an intermittent phase and a stable `rational' market phase. The statistics of price changes in the intermittent phase resembles that of real price changes, with small linear correlations, fat tails and long range volatility clustering. We discuss how the time dependence of these two parameters spontaneously drives the system in the intermittent region. We analyze quantitatively the temporal correlation of activity in the intermittent phase, and show that the `random time strategy shift' mechanism that we proposed earlier allows one to understand the observed long ranged correlations. Other mechanisms leading to long ranged correlations are also reviewed. We discuss several other issues, such as the formation of bubbles and crashes, the influence of transaction costs and the distribution of agents wealth.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Science & Finance, Capital Fund Management in its series Science & Finance (CFM) working paper archive with number 500022.

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    Date of creation: Jun 2002
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    Publication status: Published in EPJB (2003)
    Handle: RePEc:sfi:sfiwpa:500022

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    1. Vasiliki Plerou & Parameswaran Gopikrishnan & Xavier Gabaix & H. Eugene Stanley, 2001. "Quantifying Stock Price Response to Demand Fluctuations," Papers, arXiv.org cond-mat/0106657, arXiv.org.
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    Cited by:
    1. Giardina, Irene & Bouchaud, Jean-Philippe, 2003. "Volatility clustering in agent based market models," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 324(1), pages 6-16.
    2. Samuel E. Vazquez, 2009. "Scale Invariance, Bounded Rationality and Non-Equilibrium Economics," Papers, arXiv.org 0902.3840, arXiv.org.

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