Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Using Monte Carlo Simulation to Account for Uncertainties in the Spatial Explicit Modeling of Biomass Fired Combined Heat and Power Potentials in Austria

Contents:

Author Info

  • Johannes Schmidt

    ()
    (Doctoral School Sustainable Development (dokNE), University of Natural Resources and Applied Life Sciences, Vienna)

  • Sylvain Leduc

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria)

  • Erik Dotzauer

    (Mälardalen University, Box 883, SE-72123 Västerås, Sweden)

  • Georg Kindermann

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria)

  • Erwin Schmid

    ()
    (Institute for Sustainable Economic Development, Department of Economics and Social Sciences, University of Natural Resources and Applied Life Sciences, Vienna)

Abstract

Austria aims at increasing its share of renewable energy production by 11% until 2020. Combined Heat and Power (CHP) plants fired by forest wood can significantly contribute to attaining this target. However, the spatial distribution of biomass supply and of heat demand limits the potentials of CHP production. This paper assesses CHP potentials using a mixed integer programming model that optimizes locations of bioenergy plants. Investment costs of district heating infrastructure are modeled as a function of heat demand densities, which can differ substantially. Gasification of biomass in a combined cycle process is assumed as production technology. Some model parameters have a broad range according to a literature review. Monte-Carlo simulations have therefore been performed to account for model parameter uncertainty in our analysis. Optimal locations of plants are clustered around big cities in the East of Austria. At current power prices, biomass based CHP production allows producing around 3% of Austria’s total current energy demand. Yet, the heat utilization decreases when CHP production increases due to limited heat demand that is suitable for district heating.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: ftp://ftp.boku.ac.at/pub/repecftpg/repecftp/RePEc/sed/wpaper/432009.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Institute for Sustainable Economic Development, Department of Economics and Social Sciences, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna in its series Working Papers with number 432009.

as in new window
Length: 22 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:sed:wpaper:432009

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Gregor-Mendel Straße 33, A-1180 Wien
Phone: +43 1 47654 3670
Fax: +43 1 47654 3692
Web page: http://www.wiso.boku.ac.at/
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: Combined Heat and Power; District Heating; Bioenergy; Biomass; Mixed Integer Programming; Monte-Carlo Simulation;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Zhao, Xueyan & Griffiths, William E. & Griffith, Garry R. & Mullen, John D., 2000. "Probability distributions for economic surplus changes: the case of technical change in the Australian wool industry," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 44(1), March.
  2. Styles, David & Jones, Michael B., 2007. "Current and future financial competitiveness of electricity and heat from energy crops: A case study from Ireland," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 4355-4367, August.
  3. Streicher, Gerhard & Schmid, Erwin & Salhofer, Klaus, 2006. "Testing for the Efficiency of a Policy Intended to Meet Objectives: General Model and Application," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 31(02), August.
  4. Bram, S. & De Ruyck, J. & Lavric, D., 2009. "Using biomass: A system perturbation analysis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 194-201, February.
  5. Sjödin, Jörgen & Henning, Dag, 2004. "Calculating the marginal costs of a district-heating utility," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 78(1), pages 1-18, May.
  6. Grohnheit, Poul Erik & Gram Mortensen, Bent Ole, 2003. "Competition in the market for space heating. District heating as the infrastructure for competition among fuels and technologies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(9), pages 817-826, July.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Awudu, Iddrisu & Zhang, Jun, 2012. "Uncertainties and sustainability concepts in biofuel supply chain management: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 1359-1368.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sed:wpaper:432009. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Eva Krickler).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.