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Macroeconomic and fiscal challenges faced by the Southern and Eastern Mediterranean region

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  • Marek Dabrowski

Abstract

The current fiscal imbalances and fragilities in the Southern and Eastern Mediterranean countries (SEMC) are the result of decades of instability, but have become more visible since 2008, when a combination of adverse economic and political shocks (the global and European financial crises, Arab Spring) hit the region. In an environment of slower growth and higher public expenditure pressures, fiscal deficits and public debts have increased rapidly. This has led to the deterioration of current accounts, a depletion of official reserves, the depreciation of some currencies and higher inflationary pressure. To avoid the danger of public debt and a balance-of-payment crisis, comprehensive economic reforms, including fiscal adjustment, are urgently needed. These reforms should involve eliminating energy and food subsidies and replacing them with targeted social assistance, reducing the oversized public administration and privatizing public sector enterprises, improving the business climate, increasing trade and investment openness, and sector diversification. The SEMC may also benefit from a peace dividend if the numerous internal and regional conflicts are resolved. However, the success of economic reforms will depend on the results of the political transition, i.e., the ability to build stable democratic regimes which can resist populist temptations and rally political support for more rational economic policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Marek Dabrowski, 2014. "Macroeconomic and fiscal challenges faced by the Southern and Eastern Mediterranean region," CASE Network Studies and Analyses 0471, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:sec:cnstan:0471
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    File URL: https://case-research.eu/sites/default/files/publications/S%26A%20471.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Padamja Khandelwal & Agustin Roitman, 2013. "The Economics of Political Transitions: Implications for the Arab Spring," IMF Working Papers 2013/069, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Sekkat, Khalid, 2012. "Manufactured Exports and FDI in Southern Mediterranean Countries: Evolution, determinants and prospects," CEPS Papers 6849, Centre for European Policy Studies.
    3. Michael Bruno & Guido Di Tella & Rudiger Dornbusch & Stanley Fischer, 1988. "Inflation Stabilization: The Experience of Israel, Argentina, Brazil, Bolivia, and Mexico," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262022796, December.
    4. Marek Dabrowski, 2012. "What Can Arab Countries Learn From Post-communist Transition?," CASE Network E-briefs 09, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
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    Cited by:

    1. Joana Silva & Victoria Levin & Matteo Morgandi, 2013. "Inclusion and Resilience : The Way Forward for Social Safety Nets in the Middle East and North Africa," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 14064, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Southern and Eastern Mediterranean; fiscal policy; macroeconomic policy; energy and food subsidies; Arab Spring; Arab transition;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • H24 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Personal Income and Other Nonbusiness Taxes and Subsidies
    • H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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