The East European Financial Crisis
AbstractThis paper discusses the global financial crisis of 2008/9 in thirteen countries, the ten new EU members that previously were communist and the three countries of Western former Soviet Union. Their problems were excessive current account deficits and private foreign debt, currency mismatches, and high inflation, while public finances were in good shape. The dominant cause was fixed exchange rates. Many lessons can be drawn from this crisis. A dollar peg makes no sense in this part of the world. The five currency boards in the region have lacked credibility. By contrast, inflation targeting has worked eminently. The euro has proven credible both in the countries that officially adopted it and in the countries that adopted it unilaterally. With the exception of Hungary, all the countries in the region have displayed decent fiscal policies. No government should accept large domestic loans in foreign currency and they can be regulated away. The IMF has successfully returned to the original Washington consensus with relatively few conditions: a reasonable budget balance and a realistic exchange rate policy, while focusing more on bank restructuring. The most controversial issue is the role of the ECB. The ECB should facilitate the accession of willing EU members to the euro by relaxing the ERM II conditions.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research in its series CASE Network Studies and Analyses with number 0395.
Length: 30 Pages
Date of creation: 2009
Date of revision:
Financial crisis; macroeconomics; exchange rate policy; Eastern Europe; transition;
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Haselmann, Rainer, 2006. "Strategies of foreign banks in transition economies," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 7(4), pages 283-299, December.
- Maurice Obstfeld & Jay C. Shambaugh & Alan M. Taylor, 2009.
"Financial Instability, Reserves, and Central Bank Swap Lines in the Panic of 2008,"
NBER Working Papers
14826, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Maurice Obstfeld & Jay C. Shambaugh & Alan M. Taylor, 2009. "Financial Instability, Reserves, and Central Bank Swap Lines in the Panic of 2008," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 480-86, May.
- Zsolt Darvas & György Szapáry, 2008.
"Euro Area Enlargement and Euro Adoption Strategies,"
0801, Department of Mathematical Economics and Economic Analysis, Corvinus University of Budapest.
- Zsolt Darvas & Gy�rgy Szap�ry, 2008. "Euro Area Enlargement and Euro Adoption Strategies," European Economy - Economic Papers 304, Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
- Zsolt Darvas & Gyorgy Szapary, 2008. "Euro Area Enlargement and Euro Adoption Strategies," IEHAS Discussion Papers 0824, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Hungarian Academy of Sciences.
- Zsolt Darvas & Jean Pisani-Ferry, 2008. "Avoiding a new European divide," Policy Briefs 227, Bruegel.
- Jean Pisani-Ferry & Adam Posen, . "The euro at ten: the next global currency?," Books, Bruegel, number 303, September.
- Dabrowski, Marek, 2006.
"Rethinking balance-of-payments constraints in a globalized world,"
11962, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Marek Dabrowski, 2006. "Rethinking balance-of-payments constraints in a globalized world," CASE Network Studies and Analyses 0330, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
- Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2007.
"Capital flows to central and Eastern Europe,"
Emerging Markets Review,
Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 106-123, May.
- Philip R. Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2006. "Capital Flows to Central and Eastern Europe," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp161, IIIS.
- Gian-Maria Milesi-Ferretti & Philip R. Lane, 2006. "Capital Flows to Central and Eastern Europe," IMF Working Papers 06/188, International Monetary Fund.
- Sebastian Edwards, 2007.
"Capital Controls, Sudden Stops, and Current Account Reversals,"
in: Capital Controls and Capital Flows in Emerging Economies: Policies, Practices and Consequences, pages 73-120
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Sebastian Edwards, 2005. "Capital Controls, Sudden Stops and Current Account Reversals," NBER Working Papers 11170, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Sebastian Edwards, 2006.
"The Relationship Between Exchange Rates and Inflation Targeting Revisited,"
NBER Working Papers
12163, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Sebastian Edwards, 2006. "The Relationship Between Exchange Rates and Inflation Targeting Revisited," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 409, Central Bank of Chile.
- Guillermo A. Calvo, 1998. "Capital Flows and Capital-Market Crises: The Simple Economics of Sudden Stops," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 0, pages 35-54, November.
- Anders Aslund & Marek Dabrowski, 2008. "Challenges of Globalization: Imbalances and Growth," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 4181.
- Kibritçioğlu, Aykut, 2011.
"2006-2011 Küresel Ekonomik Krizinin Bileşenleri ve Karmaşıklığı
[The Components and Complexity of the Global Economic Crisis of 2006-2011]," MPRA Paper 33515, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 18 Jul 2011.
- Giovanni Andrea Cornia, 2012. "The New Structuralist Macroeconomics and Income Inequality," Working Papers - Economics wp2012_25.rdf, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Scienze per l'Economia e l'Impresa.
- Richard Connolly, 2010. "The EU Economy: Member States Outside the Euro Area in 2009," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(s1), pages 243-266, 09.
- Richard Pomfret, 2011. "Global Crises, Fiscal Imbalances and Global Instability: Interests and Reactions of Asian Economies," School of Economics Working Papers 2011-33, University of Adelaide, School of Economics.
- Giovanni Andrea Cornia & Bruno Martorano, 2013.
"Development policies and income inequality in selected developing regions, 1980-2010,"
Working Papers - Economics
wp2013_13.rdf, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Scienze per l'Economia e l'Impresa.
- Giovanni Andrea Cornia & Bruno Martorano, 2012. "Development Policies and Income Inequality in Selected Developing Regions, 1980–2010," UNCTAD Discussion Papers 210, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Katarzyna SidÅ‚o).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.