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Ukraine’s Foreign Trade Developments and Forecasts

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  • Yurij M. Kuz'myn

Abstract

This paper discloses major developments of Ukrainian foreign trade for the recent years, shows the behavior of main factors which influenced foreign trade, presents results of modeling as well as short-term forecasts. In this paper we describe the structure of Ukrainian merchandise trade, exchange rate movements and their impact on the merchandise trade balance. Then we discuss developments of the world economy and forecasts for international trade. Finally, we present the model of Ukrainian merchandise foreign trade followed by the forecasts produced by the model. From the practical point of view, our work was aimed at building a model that would help to predict the influence of the price (real exchange rate) and income (GDP) changes both domestically and abroad on the Ukrainian Merchandise Trade. The results were planned to use in the monthly and quarterly models of Ukrainian economy developed and operated by CASE and Ukrainian government.

Suggested Citation

  • Yurij M. Kuz'myn, 2000. "Ukraine’s Foreign Trade Developments and Forecasts," CASE Network Studies and Analyses 0207, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:sec:cnstan:0207
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Sebastian Edwards, 1988. "Conclusion and Bibliography of Real Exchange Rates, Devaluation and Adjustment: Exchange Rate Policy In Developing Countries," UCLA Economics Working Papers 516, UCLA Department of Economics.
    2. Nouriel Roubini & Paul Wachtel, 1997. "Current Account Sustainability in Transition Economies," Working Papers 97-03, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
    3. John Williamson, 1994. "Estimating Equilibrium Exchange Rates," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 17, October.
    4. Edwards, Sebastian, 1988. "Real and monetary determinants of real exchange rate behavior: Theory and evidence from developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 311-341, November.
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    Keywords

    Ukraine; foreign trade;

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