Assessing Development Strategies to Achieve the MDGs in Asia. Macroeconomic Strategies of MDG Achievement in the Kyrgyz Republic
AbstractThe paper aims at analyzing macroeconomic and financial strategies, which are to ensure achievement of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) in the Kyrgyz Republic. The paper is based on results of simulations generated through the application of standard MAMS, a computable general equilibrium model adjusted to the country situation and calibrated with data of Kyrgyzstan. MAMS-model-based simulation results indicate that a continuation of the current policies under the baseline scenario would allow for achieving MDG1 (poverty reduction) only; the country would fall short of the targets for other MDGs. In order to achieve all MDGs, the country needs to increase government spending on MDG-relevant sectors (education, health, water and sanitation) by 7.8-8.1% of GDP per annum in comparison to the baseline scenario. The scenario that combines increased taxes and aid inflows seems to be the most realistic, but it would still require very substantial increases in tax collections and grant aid. The situation is going to be easier, if the economic growth rates 2011-2015 would be higher than 7% per annum. This is possible, if the government would be more successful in implementation of structural reforms, FDI and private domestic investments attraction and mobilization of resources for infrastructure development. Another possible way out is a substantial increase in government spending efficiency allowing for receiving higher social returns for money spent.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research in its series CASE Network Reports with number 0095.
Length: 62 Pages
Date of creation: 2011
Date of revision:
CGE model; Kyrgyzstan; macroeconomic policies; Millennium Development Goals;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
- E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
- E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
- H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General
- H51 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Health
- H52 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Education
- H54 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Infrastructures
- H6 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt
- I1 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health
- I2 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education
- O11 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
- O15 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
- O53 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2011-06-25 (All new papers)
- NEP-CMP-2011-06-25 (Computational Economics)
- NEP-CWA-2011-06-25 (Central & Western Asia)
- NEP-SEA-2011-06-25 (South East Asia)
- NEP-TRA-2011-06-25 (Transition Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- World Bank, 2003. "Kyrgyz Republic : Enhancing Pro-poor Growth," World Bank Other Operational Studies 14641, The World Bank.
- Abdur R Chowdhury, 2004.
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- Abdur R. Chowdhury, 2003. "Private Savings In Transition Economies: Are There Terms Of Trade Shocks?," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 2003-572, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
- Garbis Iradian, 2007. "Rapid Growth in the CIS: Is It Sustainable?," wiiw Research Reports 336, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
- Jeffrey Round, 2003. "Constructing SAMs for Development Policy Analysis: Lessons Learned and Challenges Ahead," Economic Systems Research, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 15(2), pages 161-183.
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