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Hay Price Forecasts at the State Level

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  • Diersen, Matthew A.

    ()
    (Department of Economics,South Dakota State University)

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    Abstract

    Higher prices for major crops (e.g., corn, soybeans and wheat) have received considerable attention by analysts, researchers, and producers. A common perception is that acres can be readily bid away from other crops to quickly return to equilibrium price levels. Seldom mentioned are crops that do not trade on a national platform. Principal among these crops probably would be hay from alfalfa and grass. A balance sheet model is developed at the state level for South Dakota. As a state with typically large carryover stocks of hay and multiple markets served, South Dakota presents a stark contrast to states with more stable production, supply, and use. Several structural relations and equations are presented to forecast acres, supply, and price through an inverse demand function. A discussion follows on how to update the price forecast as additional information is obtained. Suggestions are also offered on extending the model to other states.

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    File URL: http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/bitstream/37600/2/confp05-08.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by South Dakota State University, Department of Economics in its series SDSU Working Papers in Progress with number 22008.

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    Length: pages 17 pages
    Date of creation: Apr 2008
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:sda:workpa:22008

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    Postal: Box 504, Scobey Hall, Brookings, SD 57007-0895
    Phone: 605-688-4141
    Fax: 605-688-6386
    Web page: http://www.sdstate.edu/econ/
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    Related research

    Keywords: alfalfa price; feed demand; perennial crop; hay stocks;

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    1. Lewis A. Hagedorn & Scott H. Irwin & Darrel L. Good & Evelyn V. Colino, 2005. "Does the Performance of Illinois Corn and Soybean Farmers Lag the Market?," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 87(5), pages 1271-1279.
    2. Kim B. Anderson & B. Wade Brorsen, 2005. "Marketing Performance of Oklahoma Farmers," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 87(5), pages 1265-1270.
    3. Good, Darrel L. & Irwin, Scott H., 2007. "2007 U.S Corn Production Risks: What Does History Teach Us?," Marketing and Outlook Briefs 37494, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics.
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