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Fiscal Policy in an estimated open-economy model for the EURO area

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  • Ratto Marco

    (European Commission, DG JRC)

  • Roeger Werner

    (Eurepean Commission, DG ECFIN)

  • Veld Jan

    (European Commission, DG ECFIN)

Abstract

This paper presents an open economy DSGE model, which is estimated on a euro area data set using Bayesian techniques. It extents current models by allowing for a detailed empirical analysis of fiscal stabilisation policies. Reaction functions for expenditure categories are estimated in order to measure the extent of the fiscal response of various expenditure categories and to determine the lags of fiscal policy. On the revenue side we use the OECD tax elasticities. Our paper has three objectives: On the methodological side we are interested how much the addition of fiscal policy improves the fit of the DSGE model. The economic issues we explore are first, what has been the contribution of fiscal policy to stabilize the euro area economy? And second, what has been the size of fiscal shocks and how much have they increased the volatility of GDP growth and inflation in the euro area

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Society for Computational Economics in its series Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 with number 43.

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Date of creation: 04 Jul 2006
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Handle: RePEc:sce:scecfa:43

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Keywords: DSGE Models; Fiscal Policy;

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References

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  1. Fabio Canova & Luca Sala, 2007. "Back to square one: identification issues in DSGE models," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0715, Banco de Espa�a.
  2. Roberto Perotti, 2004. "Estimating the effects of fiscal policy in OECD countries," Working Papers 276, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  3. Antonio Fatás & Ilian Mihov, 2003. "The Case For Restricting Fiscal Policy Discretion," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 118(4), pages 1419-1447, November.
  4. Sims, Christopher A & Zha, Tao, 1998. "Bayesian Methods for Dynamic Multivariate Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 949-68, November.
  5. Coenen, Günter & Straub, Roland, 2005. "Does government spending crowd in private consumption? Theory and empirical evidence for the euro area," Working Paper Series 0513, European Central Bank.
  6. Galí, Jordi & López-Salido, David & Vallés, Javier, 2004. "Understanding the effects of government spending on consumption," Working Paper Series 0339, European Central Bank.
  7. Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler & J. David Lopez-Salido, 2001. "European Inflation Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 8218, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Michael J. Artis, Luca Onorante, 2006. "The Economic Importance of Fiscal Rules," Economics Working Papers ECO2006/14, European University Institute.
  9. Frank Schorfheide, 2000. "Loss function-based evaluation of DSGE models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(6), pages 645-670.
  10. Roeger, Werner & in 't Veld, Jan, 2004. "Some selected simulation experiments with the European commission's QUEST model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 785-832, September.
  11. Galí, Jordi & Vallés, Javier & Wolman, Alexander L., 2003. "Understanding the effects of government spending on consumption," CFS Working Paper Series 2004/23, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  12. Ratto M. & Roeger W. & in’t Veld J. & Girardi R., 2005. "An estimated new Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of the Euro area," Macroeconomics 0503002, EconWPA.
  13. Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 2002. "An Empirical Characterization Of The Dynamic Effects Of Changes In Government Spending And Taxes On Output," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(4), pages 1329-1368, November.
  14. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2002. "An estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of the euro area," Working Paper Research 35, National Bank of Belgium.
  15. Perotti, Roberto, 2005. "Estimating the Effects of Fiscal Policy in OECD Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 4842, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  16. Lorenzo Forni & Libero Monteforte, 2006. "The estimated general equilibrium effects of fiscal policy: the case of the euro area," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 142, Society for Computational Economics.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Dybczak, Kamil & Melecky, Martin, 2012. "EU Fiscal Stance Vulnerability: Are the Old Members the Gold Members?," MPRA Paper 42837, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Eric M. Leeper & Michael Plante & Nora Traum, 2009. "Dynamics of Fiscal Financing in the United States," NBER Working Papers 15160, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Dybczak, Kamil & Melecky, Martin, 2011. "Macroeconomic Shocks and the Fiscal Stance within the EU: A Panel Regression Analysis," MPRA Paper 33684, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Fritz Breuss & Katrin Rabitsch, 2008. "An Estimated Two Country DSGE Model of Austria and the Euro Area," FIW Working Paper series 017, FIW.
  5. Robert Ambrisko & Jan Babecky & Jakub Rysanek & Vilem Valenta, 2012. "Assessing the Impact of Fiscal Measures on the Czech Economy," Working Papers 2012/15, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  6. Casimir Dadak, 2011. "Political Economy of the Euro Area Crisis," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 58(5), pages 593-604, December.
  7. Alfonso Arpaia & Werner Roeger & Janos Varga & Jan in 't Veld & Alexandr Hobza & Isabel Grilo & Peter Wobst, 2007. "Quantitative assessment of Structural Reforms: Modelling the Lisbon Strategy," European Economy - Economic Papers 282, Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  8. Jamie Murray, 2013. "Parameter Uncertainty and the Fiscal Multiplier," Treasury Working Paper Series 13/19, New Zealand Treasury.
  9. Matthew Canzoneri, 2007. "Coordination of Monetary and Fiscal Policy in a Monetary Union: Policy Issues & Analytical Models," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 165, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  10. Marco Ratto, 2008. "Analysing DSGE Models with Global Sensitivity Analysis," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 31(2), pages 115-139, March.

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