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Fiscal Policy in an estimated open-economy model for the EURO area

Author

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  • Ratto Marco

    (European Commission, DG JRC)

  • Roeger Werner

    (Eurepean Commission, DG ECFIN)

  • Veld Jan

    (European Commission, DG ECFIN)

Abstract

This paper presents an open economy DSGE model, which is estimated on a euro area data set using Bayesian techniques. It extents current models by allowing for a detailed empirical analysis of fiscal stabilisation policies. Reaction functions for expenditure categories are estimated in order to measure the extent of the fiscal response of various expenditure categories and to determine the lags of fiscal policy. On the revenue side we use the OECD tax elasticities. Our paper has three objectives: On the methodological side we are interested how much the addition of fiscal policy improves the fit of the DSGE model. The economic issues we explore are first, what has been the contribution of fiscal policy to stabilize the euro area economy? And second, what has been the size of fiscal shocks and how much have they increased the volatility of GDP growth and inflation in the euro area

Suggested Citation

  • Ratto Marco & Roeger Werner & Veld Jan, 2006. "Fiscal Policy in an estimated open-economy model for the EURO area," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 43, Society for Computational Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:sce:scecfa:43
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    Cited by:

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    2. Marco Ratto, 2008. "Analysing DSGE Models with Global Sensitivity Analysis," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 31(2), pages 115-139, March.
    3. Dybczak, Kamil & Melecky, Martin, 2014. "EU fiscal stance vulnerability: Are the old members the gold members?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 87-101.
    4. Reicher, Claire, 2014. "Systematic fiscal policy and macroeconomic performance: A critical overview of the literature," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 8, pages 1-37.
    5. Johannes Hermanus Kemp & Hylton Hollander, 2020. "A medium-sized, open-economy, fiscal DSGE model of South Africa," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2020-92, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    6. Julia Lendvai & Werner Roeger, 2010. "External deficits in the Baltics 1995 to 2007: Catching up or imbalances," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 398, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    7. Verstegen, Loes & Meijdam, Lex, 2016. "The Effectiveness of a Fiscal Transfer Mechanism in a Monetary Union : A DSGE Model for the Euro Area," Other publications TiSEM 2963247d-7fe3-4b3a-80b5-c, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    8. Verstegen, Loes & Meijdam, Lex, 2016. "The Effectiveness of a Fiscal Transfer Mechanism in a Monetary Union : A DSGE Model for the Euro Area," Discussion Paper 2016-023, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    9. Leeper, Eric M. & Plante, Michael & Traum, Nora, 2010. "Dynamics of fiscal financing in the United States," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 156(2), pages 304-321, June.
    10. Matthew Canzoneri, 2007. "Coordination of Monetary and Fiscal Policy in a Monetary Union: Policy Issues & Analytical Models," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 165, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    11. Ambriško, Róbert & Babecký, Jan & Ryšánek, Jakub & Valenta, Vilém, 2015. "Assessing the impact of fiscal measures on the Czech economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 350-357.
    12. Dybczak, Kamil & Melecky, Martin, 2011. "Macroeconomic Shocks and the Fiscal Stance within the EU: A Panel Regression Analysis," MPRA Paper 33684, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Matthew B. Canzoneri, 2007. "Coordination Of Monetary And Fiscal Policy In A Monetary Union: Policy Issues And Analytical Models," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 75(s1), pages 21-43, September.
    14. Fritz Breuss, 2009. "Lacking "Europeanisation" of National Business Cycles as a Risk for the Euro Area," Austrian Economic Quarterly, WIFO, vol. 14(2), pages 91-104, June.
    15. Jamie Murray, 2013. "Parameter Uncertainty and the Fiscal Multiplier," Treasury Working Paper Series 13/19, New Zealand Treasury.
    16. Takyi, Paul Owusu & Leon-Gonzalez, Roberto, 2020. "Macroeconomic impact of fiscal policy in Ghana: Analysis of an estimated DSGE model with financial exclusion," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 239-260.
    17. Fritz Breuss & Katrin Rabitsch, 2009. "An estimated two-country DSGE model of Austria and the Euro Area," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 36(1), pages 123-158, February.
    18. Hjelm, Göran & Jönsson, Kristian, 2010. "In Search of a Method for Measuring the Output Gap of the Swedish Economy," Working Papers 115, National Institute of Economic Research.
    19. Leeper, Eric M. & Plante, Michael & Traum, Nora, 2010. "Dynamics of fiscal financing in the United States," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 156(2), pages 304-321, June.
    20. Casimir Dadak, 2011. "Political Economy of the Euro Area Crisis," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 58(5), pages 593-604, December.
    21. Alfonso Arpaia & Werner Roeger & Janos Varga & Jan in 't Veld & Alexandr Hobza & Isabel Grilo & Peter Wobst, 2007. "Quantitative assessment of Structural Reforms: Modelling the Lisbon Strategy," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 282, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    DSGE Models; Fiscal Policy;

    JEL classification:

    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General

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