A Structural Macro Model of the Yield Curve
AbstractThis paper analyzes the implications of the standard monetary policy rules, embedded in a New-Keynesian structural macro-model, for the term structure of interest rates. We extend the standard New-Keynesian framework with unobservable factors representing the output-neutral real interest rate and the long-run inflation target of the central bank. Asymmetric information is assumed with respect of the inflation target, implying private sector learning with respect to the inflation target. In our baseline model, we guarantee consistency between the pricing kernel proposed in the macro model and the one implied by the term structure specification. We, however, also study cases in which this condition is relaxed, implying time-varying prices of risk. The results show the importance of the inflation target in explaining movements at the long end of the yield curve. Finally, the fit of the term structure is comparable to the one obtained making use of standard latent factor models.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Society for Computational Economics in its series Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 with number 236.
Date of creation: 04 Jul 2006
Date of revision:
term structure; New-Keyensian macro model;
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- Leo Krippner & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2009. "Forecasting New Zealand's economic growth using yield curve information," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2009/18, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
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