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Nonparametric Estimation of Multifactor Continuous Time Interest-Rate Models

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  • Christopher T. Downing

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    (Board of Governors, Federal Reserve)

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    Abstract

    In this paper we study the finite sample properties of the nonparametric method developed by Stanton and later extended by Boudoukh, et al. for the estimation of the drifts and diffusions of multifactor continuous-time term-structure models. Monte Carlo simulations from a known parametric model are employed to calculate the performance of the estimator. The paper focuses on the issue of optimal bandwidth selection. The results suggest that, for persistent data-generating processes exhibiting stochastic volatility, such as interest rate data, a bandwidth function that varies over the surface of the data is optimal. The paper also presents a computationally intensive bandwidth-selection procedure that uses dynamic graphics, combining the computational power of the machine with the pattern-recognition abilities of the human brain. The Monte Carlo simulations require the numeric solution of a system of stochastic differential equations. The paper also presents a nonparametric test for the validity of the solutions. This test is useful in other estimation algorithms, such as the efficient method of moments, where numeric solutions of stochastic differential equations are required. The test is also useful as a tool for understanding how the length of the time step used in the numeric solution of the stochastic differential solutions affects the accuracy of the solution.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Society for Computational Economics in its series Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 with number 111.

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    Date of creation: 01 Mar 1999
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    Handle: RePEc:sce:scecf9:111

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    Postal: CEF99, Boston College, Department of Economics, Chestnut Hill MA 02467 USA
    Fax: +1-617-552-2308
    Web page: http://fmwww.bc.edu/CEF99/
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    1. Hardle, W., 1992. "Applied Nonparametric Methods," Papers 9206, Tilburg - Center for Economic Research.
    2. Gallant, A. Ronald & Tauchen, George, 1996. "Which Moments to Match?," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(04), pages 657-681, October.
    3. David A. Chapman & Neil D. Pearson, 2000. "Is the Short Rate Drift Actually Nonlinear?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(1), pages 355-388, 02.
    4. Ait-Sahalia, Yacine, 1996. "Testing Continuous-Time Models of the Spot Interest Rate," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(2), pages 385-426.
    5. Pritsker, Matt, 1998. "Nonparametric Density Estimation and Tests of Continuous Time Interest Rate Models," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 11(3), pages 449-87.
    6. repec:cup:etheor:v:12:y:1996:i:4:p:657-81 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Oliver LINTON, . "Applied nonparametric methods," Statistic und Oekonometrie 9312, Humboldt Universitaet Berlin.
    8. Andersen, Torben G. & Lund, Jesper, 1997. "Estimating continuous-time stochastic volatility models of the short-term interest rate," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 343-377, April.
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    Cited by:
    1. A. Mele, 2000. "Fundamental Properties of Bond Prices in Models of the Short-Term Rate," THEMA Working Papers 2000-39, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
    2. Ang, Andrew & Bekaert, Geert, 2002. "Short rate nonlinearities and regime switches," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(7-8), pages 1243-1274, July.

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