Optimal Univariate Inflation Forecasting with Symmetric Stable Shocks
AbstractMonthly inflation in the United States indicates non-normality in the form of either occasional big shocks or marked changes in the level of the series. We develop a univariate state space model with symmetric stable shocks for this series. The non-Gaussian model is estimated by the Sorenson-Alspach filtering algorithm. Even after removing conditional heteroscedasticity, normality is rejected in favour of a stable distribution with exponent 1Â·83. Our model can be used for forecasting future inflation, and to simulate historical inflation forecasts conditional on the history of inflation. Relative to the Gaussian model, the stable model accounts for outliers and level shifts better, provides tighter estimates of trend inflation, and gives more realistic assessment of uncertainty during confusing episodes. Â© 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Society for Computational Economics in its series Computing in Economics and Finance 1997 with number 116.
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- Prasad V. Bidarkota & J. Huston McCulloch, 1998. "Optimal univariate inflation forecasting with symmetric stable shocks," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(6), pages 659-670.
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- Prasad V. Bidarkota, 2005. "Risk Premia in Forward Foreign Exchange Markets: A Comparison of Signal Extraction and Regression Methods," Working Papers 0501, Florida International University, Department of Economics.
- Bidarkota, Prasad V. & Dupoyet, Brice V. & McCulloch, J. Huston, 2009. "Asset pricing with incomplete information and fat tails," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1314-1331, June.
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- J. Huston McCulloch, 2005. "The Kalman Foundations of Adaptive Least Squares: Applications to Unemployment and Inflation," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 239, Society for Computational Economics.
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