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Can Indeterminacy Resolve the Consumption Correlation Puzzle?

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Wei Xiao

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Abstract

Do international business cycles only represent optimal responses by rational agents to erratic changes in technology, or are they also influenced by factors that are unrelated to fundamentals? This paper addresses this issue by exploring the role of such non-fundamental factors in improving open-economy real business cycle (RBC) models. One major shortcoming of existing RBC models is the "consumption correlation puzzle" - models tend to generate cross-country consumption correlations that are too high and output correlations that are too low. I show that with empirically supported level of increasing returns, an otherwise standard model possesses multiple equilibria and indeterminate convergent paths to the steady states, which allows for "self-fulfilling beliefs" to influence the economy. The model displays time series properties that in many ways match the data better than the conventional model. It is especially successful in generating realistic consumption and output correlations.

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Paper provided by Society for Computational Economics in its series Computing in Economics and Finance 2001 with number 209.

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Date of creation: 01 Apr 2001
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Handle: RePEc:sce:scecf1:209

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Related research
Keywords: Indeterminacy; sunspots; international correlations;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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  2. Ian Domowitz & R. Glenn Hubbard & Bruce C. Petersen, 1988. "Market Structure and Cyclical Fluctuations in U.S. Manufacturing," NBER Working Papers 2115, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Benhabib Jess & Farmer Roger E. A., 1994. "Indeterminacy and Increasing Returns," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 19-41, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Basu, Susanto & Fernald, John G, 1997. "Returns to Scale in U.S. Production: Estimates and Implications," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(2), pages 249-83, April.
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  5. Benhabib, Jess & Nishimura, Kazuo, 1998. "Indeterminacy and Sunspots with Constant Returns," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 58-96, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Bennett, R.L. & Farmer, R.E.A., 1999. "Indeterminacy with Non-Separable Utility," Economics Working Papers eco99/34, European University Institute.
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  7. Benhabib, Jess & Farmer, Roger E.A., 1995. "Indeterminacy and Sector-Specific Externalities," Working Papers 95-02, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Baxter, Marianne & Crucini, Mario J, 1995. "Business Cycles and the Asset Structure of Foreign Trade," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 36(4), pages 821-54, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Alan C. Stockman & Linda L. Tesar, 1995. "Tastes and Technology in a Two-Country Model of the Business Cycle: Explaining International Comovements," NBER Working Papers 3566, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. David K. Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe & Finn E. Kydland, 1992. "Relative Price Movements in Dynamic General Equilibrium Models of International Trade," NBER Working Papers 4243, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Hansen, Lars Peter & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1983. "Stochastic Consumption, Risk Aversion, and the Temporal Behavior of Asset Returns," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 249-65, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Kahn, Charles M, 1980. "The Solution of Linear Difference Models under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1305-11, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Backus, David K & Kehoe, Patrick J & Kydland, Finn E, 1992. "International Real Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(4), pages 745-75, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Wen, Yi, 1998. "Capacity Utilization under Increasing Returns to Scale," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 7-36, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Finn, Mary G., 1999. "An equilibrium theory of nominal and real exchange rate comovement," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 453-475, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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