On The Informational Content Of Asset Prices
AbstractWhat is the appropriate amount of past information to use in forecasting univariate linear processes? This paper proposes a non-parametric measure useful for sample size selection involving the data's asymptotic pre-dictability (AP). It is shown that the AP of a strictly stationary process is decreasing in its entropy rate. The finite-sample analog of the AP measure is the sample's entropy normalized by its alphabet size. First, Monte Carlo simulations of stationary pdf's indicate that AP increases with sample size, suggesting that "more is better". Second, computing the AP of long series of daily stock index, foreign exchange and interest rate returns suggests that AP varies non-monotonically with sample size. Moreover, the evolution of AP is characterized by strong breaks and øuctuations over time. The computa-tional framework allows a concrete comparison of the informational content of different datasets and their relative predictability.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Society for Computational Economics in its series Computing in Economics and Finance 2000 with number 101.
Date of creation: 05 Jul 2000
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: CEF 2000, Departament d'Economia i Empresa, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Ramon Trias Fargas, 25,27, 08005, Barcelona, Spain
Fax: +34 93 542 17 46
Web page: http://enginy.upf.es/SCE/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Perron, P., 1994.
"Further Evidence on Breaking Trend Functions in Macroeconomic Variables,"
Cahiers de recherche
9421, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- Perron, Pierre, 1997. "Further evidence on breaking trend functions in macroeconomic variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 355-385, October.
- Perron, P., 1990. "Further Evidence On Breaking Trend Functions In Macroeconomics Variables," Papers 350, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
- Perron, P., 1994. "Further Evidence on Breaking Trend Functions in Macroeconomic Variables," Cahiers de recherche 9421, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
- Christoffersen & Diebold, .
"Further Results on Forecasting and Model Selection Under Asymmetric Loss,"
_059, University of Pennsylvania.
- Christoffersen, Peter F & Diebold, Francis X, 1996. "Further Results on Forecasting and Model Selection under Asymmetric Loss," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(5), pages 561-71, Sept.-Oct.
- Golan, Amos & Judge, George G. & Miller, Douglas, 1996. "Maximum Entropy Econometrics," Staff General Research Papers 1488, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christopher F. Baum).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.