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The Capital Inflows Problem in Selected Asian Economies in the 1990s Revisited: The Role of Monetary Sterilization

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  • Tony Cavoli

    ()
    (School of Economics, University of Adelaide)

  • Ramkishen S. Rajan

    ()
    (School of Public Policy, George Mason University)

Abstract

This paper develops a simple model to examine the reasons behind the capital inflow surges into selected Asian economies in the 1990s prior to the financial crisis of 1997-98. The simple analytical model reveals that persistent uncovered interest differentials and consequent capital inflows may be a consequence of complete sterilization, perfect capital mobility, sluggish response of interest rates to domestic monetary disequilibrium, or some combination of all three. Using the model as an organizing framework, the paper undertakes a series of related simple empirical tests of the dynamic links between international capital flows and the extent to which they are sterilized and uncovered interest rate differentials (UIDs) in the five crisis-hit economies (Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand) over the period 1990:1 to 1997:5.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National University of Singapore, Department of Economics, SCAPE in its series SCAPE Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 0518.

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Date of creation: Dec 2005
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Handle: RePEc:sca:scaewp:0518

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Web page: http://www.fas.nus.edu.sg/ecs/scape/index.html
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Keywords: Capital flows; East Asia; interest rates; monetary sterilization; reserves;

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  1. Jeffrey A. Frankel and Chudozie Okongwu., 1995. "Liberalized Portfolio Capital Inflows in Emerging Markets: Sterilization, Expectations, and the Incompleteness of Interest Rate Convergence," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C95-054, University of California at Berkeley.
  2. Reinhart, Carmen & Khan, Mohsin, 1995. "Capital Flows in the APEC Region," MPRA Paper 8200, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Kouri, Pentti J K & Porter, Michael G, 1974. "International Capital Flows and Portfolio Equilibrium," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(3), pages 443-67, May/June.
  4. Ramikishen Rajan, 2002. "Exchange Rate Policy Options for Post-crisis Southeast Asia: Is There a Case for Currency Baskets?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(1), pages 137-163, 01.
  5. Glick, Reuven & Hutchison, Michael M., 2000. "Foreign reserve and money dynamics with asset portfolio adjustment: international evidence," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 10(3-4), pages 229-247, December.
  6. Guillermo A. Calvo, 1996. "Capital flows and macroeconomic management: tequila lessons," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 96-02, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  7. Willett, Thomas D. & Keil, Manfred W. & Ahn, Young Seok, 2002. "Capital mobility for developing countries may not be so high," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 421-434, August.
  8. Reuven Glick & Michael Hutchison, 1993. "Monetary policy, intervention, and exchange rates in Japan," Pacific Basin Working Paper Series 93-07, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  9. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1999. "No Single Currency Regime is Right for All Countries or At All Times," NBER Working Papers 7338, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Bernhard Fischer & Helmut Reisen, 1992. "Towards Capital Account Convertibility," OECD Development Centre Policy Briefs 4, OECD Publishing.
  11. Hutchison, Michael M, 2003. "Intervention and Exchange Rate Stabilization Policy in Developing Countries," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(1), pages 109-27, Spring.
  12. Graham Bird & Ramkishen S. Rajan, 2001. "Banks, Financial Liberalisation and Financial Crises in Emerging Markets," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(7), pages 889-910, 07.
  13. Camiel de Koning & Stefan Straetmans, 1997. "Variation in the Slope Coefficient of the Fama Regression for Testing Uncovered Interest Rate Parity: Evidence from Fixed and Time-varying Coefficient Approaches," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 97-014/2, Tinbergen Institute.
  14. Haque, Nadeem U. & Montiel, Peter, 1991. "Capital mobility in developing countries: Some empirical tests," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 19(10), pages 1391-1398, October.
  15. Michael P. Dooley & Donald J. Mathieson, 1992. "Exchange rate policy, international capital mobility and monetary policy instruments," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 68-95.
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Cited by:
  1. Joshua Aizenman & Reuven Glick, 2008. "Sterilization, monetary policy, and global financial integration," Working Paper Series 2008-15, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  2. Glick, Reuven & Hutchison, Michael, 2009. "Navigating the trilemma: Capital flows and monetary policy in China," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 205-224, May.
  3. Cavoli, Tony & Rajan, Ramkishen S., 2009. "Managing Risks in a Volatile Environment: The Capital Inflows Problem in Asia," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio di Genova, vol. 62(3), pages 325-340.
  4. Layal Mansour, 2012. "Hoarding of International Reserves and Sterilization in Dollarized and Indebted Countries : an effective monetary policy?," Working Papers 1208, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique (GATE), Centre national de la recherche scientifique (CNRS), Université Lyon 2, Ecole Normale Supérieure.
  5. Zhang, Chenying, 2010. "Sterilization in China: Effectiveness and Cost," Working Papers 10-29, University of Pennsylvania, Wharton School, Weiss Center.
  6. Layal Mansour, 2012. "Hoarding of International Reserves and Sterilization in Dollarized and Indebted Countries : an effective monetary policy?," Working Papers halshs-00695611, HAL.

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