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The Value of Market Research When a Firm is Learning: Real Option Pricing and Optimal Filtering

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Author Info
N. Mayor
P. Schonbucher
P.Wilmott
A.E. Whalley
D. Epstein

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Abstract

In this paper we model the value to a firm of undertaking market research into a particular product opportunity. The way in which information about the potential of the project arrives and knowledge evolves during the life of the project is modeled using the theory of optimal filtering. The value of the project and optimal entrance decision rule is then derived as the solution to a partial differential equation, using boundary conditions which reflect the structure of the project.

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File URL: http://www.finance.ox.ac.uk/file_links/finecon_papers/1999mf13.pdf
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Paper provided by Oxford Financial Research Centre in its series OFRC Working Papers Series with number 1999mf13.

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Date of creation: 1999
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Handle: RePEc:sbs:wpsefe:1999mf13

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Web page: http://www.finance.ox.ac.uk
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  1. Demers, Michel, 1991. "Investment under Uncertainty, Irreversibility and the Arrival of Information over Time," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 58(2), pages 333-50, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Cukierman, Alex, 1980. "The Effects of Uncertainty on Investment under Risk Neutrality with Endogenous Information," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(3), pages 462-75, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Fisher, Anthony C. & Hanemann, W. Michael, 1987. "Quasi-option value: Some misconceptions dispelled," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 183-190, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Bernanke, Ben S, 1983. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Cyclical Investment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 98(1), pages 85-106, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Andrew B. Abel & Avinash K. Dixit & Janice B. Eberly & Robert S. Pindyck, . "Options, the Value of Capital, and Investment," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 15-95, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
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  6. Rothschild, Michael, 1974. "A two-armed bandit theory of market pricing," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 185-202, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. McDonald, Robert L & Siegel, Daniel R, 1985. "Investment and the Valuation of Firms When There Is an Option to Shut Down," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 26(2), pages 331-49, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Pakes, Ariel S, 1986. "Patents as Options: Some Estimates of the Value of Holding European Patent Stocks," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(4), pages 755-84, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Ariel Pakes, 1986. "Patents as Options: Some Estimates of the Value of Holding European Patent Stocks," NBER Working Papers 1340, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Brennan, Michael J & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1985. "Evaluating Natural Resource Investments," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 58(2), pages 135-57, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Pindyck, Robert S, 1988. "Irreversible Investment, Capacity Choice, and the Value of the Firm," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(5), pages 969-85, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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