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The Great Moderation and Changes in the Structure of Labor Compensation

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Francesco Nucci
Marianna Riggi

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Abstract

A shift in the correlation structure of U.S. macroeconomic series has been documented by Galí and Gambetti (2009) with corresponding changes in the dynamic responses to shocks. We provide an explanation of these findings based on the observed change in the structure of labor compensation and, in particular, on the higher incidence since 1980s of performance-related pay schemes, which has increased the performance sensitivity of compensation. We capture this feature in a DSGE model of the New Keynesian type and show that this interpretation alone can account for the observed changes in the pattern of responses to shocks. In particular, with a higher sensitivity of compensation to workers performance, the response of labor productivity to a non-technology shock switches sign from positive to negative values and the contractionary effect on hours of a technology shock becomes of a smaller size in absolute terms. Alternative explanations of the Great Moderation based on structural changes fall short of accounting for both these documented changes in the dynamic responses to shocks. (JEL E32; J33)

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Paper provided by Sapienza University of Rome, Department of Public Economics in its series Working Papers with number 124.

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Handle: RePEc:sap:wpaper:124

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
J33 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Compensation Packages; Payment Methods

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  2. Susanto Basu & John G. Fernald & Miles S. Kimball, 2006. "Are Technology Improvements Contractionary?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(5), pages 1418-1448, December. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Brian J. Hall & Jeffrey B. Liebman, 1998. "Are CEOs Really Paid Like Bureaucrats?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 113(3), pages 653-691, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 2006. "Were There Regime Switches in U.S. Monetary Policy?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(1), pages 54-81, March. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Margaret M. McConnell & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2000. "Output Fluctuations in the United States: What Has Changed since the Early 1980's?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(5), pages 1464-1476, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Edward P. Lazear, 2000. "Performance Pay and Productivity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(5), pages 1346-1361, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Steven J. Davis & James A. Kahn, 2008. "Interpreting the Great Moderation: Changes in the Volatility of Economic Activity at the Macro and Micro Levels," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 22(4), pages 155-80, Fall.
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  8. Jean Boivin & Marc P Giannoni, 2006. "Has Monetary Policy Become More Effective?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(3), pages 445-462, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Jordi Gali, 1999. "Technology, Employment, and the Business Cycle: Do Technology Shocks Explain Aggregate Fluctuations?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(1), pages 249-271, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules And Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence And Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Blanchard, Olivier J & Galí, Jordi, 2008. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Oil Shocks: Why are the 2000s so Different from the 1970s?," CEPR Discussion Papers 6631, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Olivier J. Blanchard & Jordi Galí, 2007. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Oil Price Shocks: Why are the 2000s so different from the 1970s?," Economics Working Papers 1045, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Oct 2008. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Bils, Mark & Cho, Jang-Ok, 1994. "Cyclical factor utilization," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 319-354, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Olivier Blanchard & John Simon, 2001. "The Long and Large Decline in U.S. Output Volatility," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 32(2001-1), pages 135-174. [Downloadable!]
  15. Canice Prendergast, 1999. "The Provision of Incentives in Firms," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(1), pages 7-63, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Jensen, Michael C & Murphy, Kevin J, 1990. "Performance Pay and Top-Management Incentives," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(2), pages 225-64, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Olivier Blanchard & Jordi Galí, 2007. "Real Wage Rigidities and the New Keynesian Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(s1), pages 35-65, 02. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Thomas A. Lubik & Frank Schorfheide, 2004. "Testing for Indeterminacy: An Application to U.S. Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(1), pages 190-217, March. [Downloadable!]
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  19. Luca Gambetti & Evi Pappa & Fabio Canova, 2005. "The structural dynamics of US output and inflation: what explains the changes?," Economics Working Papers 921, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra. [Downloadable!]
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  20. Vicente Cuñat & Maria Guadalupe, 2005. "How Does Product Market Competition Shape Incentive Contracts?," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 3(5), pages 1058-1082, 09. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  21. Olivier J. Blanchard & Marianna Riggi, 2009. "Why are the 2000s so different from the 1970s? A structural interpretation of changes in the macroeconomic effects of oil prices," NBER Working Papers 15467, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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