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Expectations in first-price auctions

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Author Info
Oliver Kirchkamp,
Philipp Reiß

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Abstract

Bids in private value first price auctions consistently deviate from risk neutral symmetric equilibrium bids. It is difficult to explain this deviation with risk aversion. We propose and test two other explanations: (1) Bidders do not form correct expectations. (2) Bidders do not play a best reply against their expectations. We present a novel experimental setup which allows to observe bids and expectations separately. We extensively test the internal validity of this setup. We find that off equilibrium expectations explain, if at all, underbidding. Off equilibrium bids do not seem to be due to wrong expectations but due to deviations from a best reply

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Centre for Research into Industry, Enterprise, Finance and the Firm in its series CRIEFF Discussion Papers with number 0609.

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Date of creation: Jun 2006
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Handle: RePEc:san:crieff:0609

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Related research
Keywords: Experiments; Auction; Expectations.;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C92 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Group Behavior
D44 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure and Pricing - - - Auctions

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Kirchkamp, Oliver & Poen, Eva & Reiß, J. Philipp, 2004. "Bidding with Outside Options," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 04-21, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim & Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim. [Downloadable!]
  2. W. Güth & R. Ivanova-Stenzel & M. Königstein & M. Strobel, . "Learning to Bid-An Experimental Study of Bid Function Adjustments in Auctions and Fair Division Games," Sonderforschungsbereich 373 1999-70, Humboldt Universitaet Berlin.
    Other versions:
  3. Cox, James C & Smith, Vernon L & Walker, James M, 1988. " Theory and Individual Behavior of First-Price Auctions," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 61-99, March.
  4. Harrison, Glenn W, 1989. "Theory and Misbehavior of First-Price Auctions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 749-62, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Roider, Andreas & Schmitz, Patrick W., 2007. "Auctions with Anticipated Emotions: Overbidding, Underbidding, and Optimal Reserve Prices," CEPR Discussion Papers 6476, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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