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Models of Firm Dynamics and the Hazard Rate of Exits: Reconciling Theory and Evidence using Hazard Regression Models

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Abstract

This Paper considers empirical work relating to models of firm dynamics. It is shown that a hazard regression model for firm exits, with a modification to accommodate age-varying covariate effects, provides an adequate framework accommodating many of the features of interest in empirical studies on firm dynamics. Modelling implications of some of the popular theoretical models are considered and a set of empirical procedures for verifying theoretical implications of the models are proposed.The proposed hazard regression models can accommodate negative effects of initial size that increase to zero with age (active learning model), negative initial size effects that may increase with age, but stay permanently negative (passive learning model), conditional and unconditional hazard rates that decrease with age at higher ages, and adverse effects of macroeconomic shocks that decrease with age of the firm.The methods are illustrated using data on quoted UK firms. Consistent with the active learning model, the effect of initial size is significantly negative for a young firm and falls to zero with age.The hazard function conditional on size, other firm and industry-level characteristics, and macroeconomic conditions decreases with age only at higher ages, but shows the weaker property of Increasing Mean Residual Life over its entire life-duration. Instability in exchange rates affects survival of very young firms strongly, and the effect decreases to insignificant levels for older firms.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Centre for Research into Industry, Enterprise, Finance and the Firm in its series CRIEFF Discussion Papers with number 0502.

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Date of creation: Feb 2005
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Handle: RePEc:san:crieff:0502

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Keywords: Firm exit; Learning; Firm Dynamics; Non-proportional hazards; Hazard regression models;

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References

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  1. Ariel Pakes & Richard Ericson, 1989. "Empirical Implications of Alternative Models of Firm Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 2893, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Bhattacharje,e A. & C.Higson & S.Holly & P.Kattuman, 2002. "Macro Economic Instability and Business Exit: Determinants of Failures and Acquisitions of Large UK Firms," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002 27, Royal Economic Society.
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Cited by:
  1. Flora Bellone & Patrick Musso & Michel Quéré & Lionel Nesta, 2006. "Productivity and market selection of french manufacturing firms in the nineties," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/7185, Sciences Po.
  2. Elsa Morais Sarmento & Alcina Nunes, 2011. "Survival dynamics in Portugal, a regional perspective," ERSA conference papers ersa10p1313, European Regional Science Association.
  3. Erol Taymaz & Şule Özler, 2007. "Foreign Ownership, Competition, and Survival Dynamics," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer, vol. 31(1), pages 23-42, August.
  4. Alcina Nunes & Elsa Sarmento, 2010. "Business Demography Dynamics In Portugal: A Non-Parametric Survival Analysis," GEE Papers 0022, Gabinete de Estratégia e Estudos, Ministério da Economia e da Inovação, revised Sep 2010.
  5. Alcina Nunes & Elsa de Morais Sarmento, 2010. "Business Survival in Portuguese Regions," GEMF Working Papers 2010-22, GEMF - Faculdade de Economia, Universidade de Coimbra.
  6. A. Bonaccorsi & S. Giannangeli, 2010. "One or more growth processes? Evidence from new Italian firms," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 35(2), pages 137-152, September.

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