Models of Firm Dynamics and the Hazard Rate of Exits: Reconciling Theory and Evidence using Hazard Regression Models
AbstractThis Paper considers empirical work relating to models of firm dynamics. It is shown that a hazard regression model for firm exits, with a modification to accommodate age-varying covariate effects, provides an adequate framework accommodating many of the features of interest in empirical studies on firm dynamics. Modelling implications of some of the popular theoretical models are considered and a set of empirical procedures for verifying theoretical implications of the models are proposed.The proposed hazard regression models can accommodate negative effects of initial size that increase to zero with age (active learning model), negative initial size effects that may increase with age, but stay permanently negative (passive learning model), conditional and unconditional hazard rates that decrease with age at higher ages, and adverse effects of macroeconomic shocks that decrease with age of the firm.The methods are illustrated using data on quoted UK firms. Consistent with the active learning model, the effect of initial size is significantly negative for a young firm and falls to zero with age.The hazard function conditional on size, other firm and industry-level characteristics, and macroeconomic conditions decreases with age only at higher ages, but shows the weaker property of Increasing Mean Residual Life over its entire life-duration. Instability in exchange rates affects survival of very young firms strongly, and the effect decreases to insignificant levels for older firms.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Centre for Research into Industry, Enterprise, Finance and the Firm in its series CRIEFF Discussion Papers with number 0502.
Date of creation: Feb 2005
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: School of Economics and Finance, University of St. Andrews, Fife KY16 9AL
Phone: 01334 462420
Fax: 01334 462438
Web page: http://crieff.wordpress.com/
More information through EDIRC
Firm exit; Learning; Firm Dynamics; Non-proportional hazards; Hazard regression models;
Other versions of this item:
- Arnab Bhattacharjee, 2005. "Models of Firm Dynamics and the Hazard Rate of Exits: Reconciling Theory and Evidence using Hazard Regression Models," Econometrics 0503021, EconWPA.
- C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
- C34 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Truncated and Censored Models; Switching Regression Models
- C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies
- C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
- D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search, Learning, and Information
- L16 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Industrial Organization and Macroeconomics; Macroeconomic Industrial Structure
- L25 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Firm Performance
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2005-06-14 (All new papers)
- NEP-ENT-2005-06-14 (Entrepreneurship)
- NEP-FMK-2005-06-14 (Financial Markets)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Steve J. Davis & John Haltiwanger, 1991.
"Gross job creation, gross job destruction and employment reallocation,"
Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues
91-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Davis, Steven J & Haltiwanger, John C, 1992. "Gross Job Creation, Gross Job Destruction, and Employment Reallocation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(3), pages 819-63, August.
- Steve J. Davis & John Haltiwanger, 1991. "Gross Job Creation, Gross Job Destruction and Employment Reallocation," NBER Working Papers 3728, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- G. Steven Olley & Ariel Pakes, 1992.
"The Dynamics of Productivity in the Telecommunications Equipment Industry,"
NBER Working Papers
3977, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Olley, G Steven & Pakes, Ariel, 1996. "The Dynamics of Productivity in the Telecommunications Equipment Industry," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(6), pages 1263-97, November.
- George S Olley & Ariel Pakes, 1992. "The Dynamics Of Productivity In The Telecommunications Equipment Industry," Working Papers 92-2, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
- Pakes, Ariel & Ericson, Richard, 1998.
"Empirical Implications of Alternative Models of Firm Dynamics,"
Journal of Economic Theory,
Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 1-45, March.
- Ariel Pakes & Richard Ericson, 1989. "Empirical Implications of Alternative Models of Firm Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 2893, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Pakes, A. & Ericson, R., 1990. "Empirical Implications Of Alternative Models Of Firm Dynamics," Papers 594, Yale - Economic Growth Center.
- Van den Berg, Gerard J., 2000.
"Duration Models: Specification, Identification, and Multiple Durations,"
9446, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Van den Berg, Gerard J., 2001. "Duration models: specification, identification and multiple durations," Handbook of Econometrics, in: J.J. Heckman & E.E. Leamer (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 55, pages 3381-3460 Elsevier.
- Cabral Luis M. B., 1993. "Experience Advantages and Entry Dynamics," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 403-416, April.
- Lambson, Val Eugene, 1992. "Competitive Profits in the Long Run," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(1), pages 125-42, January.
- Bhattacharje,e A. & C.Higson & S.Holly & P.Kattuman, 2002.
"Macro Economic Instability and Business Exit: Determinants of Failures and Acquisitions of Large UK Firms,"
Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002
27, Royal Economic Society.
- A. Bhattacharjee & Higson, C. & Holly, S. & Kattuman, P., 2002. "Macro Economic Instability and Business Exit: Determinants of Failures and Acquisitions of Large UK Firms," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0206, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Torben Martinussen, 2002. "Efficient Estimation of Fixed and Time-varying Covariate Effects in Multiplicative Intensity Models," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics & Finnish Statistical Society & Norwegian Statistical Association & Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 29(1), pages 57-74.
- Jaap H. Abbring & Jeffrey R. Campbell, 2005. "A Firm's First Year," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 05-046/3, Tinbergen Institute.
- Murphy, S. A. & Sen, P. K., 1991. "Time-dependent coefficients in a Cox-type regression model," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 153-180, October.
- S.A. Lippman & R.P. Rumelt, 1982. "Uncertain Imitability: An Analysis of Interfirm Differences in Efficiency under Competition," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 13(2), pages 418-438, Autumn.
- Lambson, V.E., 1989. "Industry Evolution With Sunk Costs And Uncertian Market Conditions," Working papers 8904, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- Bhattacharjee, A. & Samarjit Das, 2002. "Testing Proportionality in Duration Models with Respect to Continuous Covariates," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0220, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Dunne, T. & Roberts, M.J. & Samuelson, L., 1988.
"Pattenrs Of Firm Entry And Exit In U.S. Manufacturing Industries,"
1-88-2, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics.
- Timothy Dunne & Mark J. Roberts & Larry Samuelson, 1988. "Patterns of Firm Entry and Exit in U.S. Manufacturing Industries," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 19(4), pages 495-515, Winter.
- Bhattacharjee, A., 2003.
"Estimation in Hazard Regression Models under Ordered Departures from Proportionality,"
Cambridge Working Papers in Economics
0337, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Bhattacharjee, Arnab, 2004. "Estimation in hazard regression models under ordered departures from proportionality," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 517-536, October.
- Ericson, Richard & Pakes, Ariel, 1995. "Markov-Perfect Industry Dynamics: A Framework for Empirical Work," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(1), pages 53-82, January.
- Marcus Asplund & Volker Nocke, 2003. "Firm Turnover in Imperfectly Competitive Markets," PIER Working Paper Archive 03-010, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
- P. Hall & B. Presnell, 1999. "Intentionally biased bootstrap methods," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 61(1), pages 143-158.
- Jovanovic, Boyan, 1982. "Selection and the Evolution of Industry," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(3), pages 649-70, May.
- Elsa Morais Sarmento & Alcina Nunes, 2011. "Survival dynamics in Portugal, a regional perspective," ERSA conference papers ersa10p1313, European Regional Science Association.
- Alcina Nunes & Elsa Sarmento, 2010.
"Business Demography Dynamics In Portugal: A Non-Parametric Survival Analysis,"
0022, Gabinete de Estratégia e Estudos, Ministério da Economia e da Inovação, revised Sep 2010.
- Alcina Nunes & Elsa Sarmento, 2010. "Business Demography Dynamics in Portugal: A Non-Parametric Survival Analysis," GEMF Working Papers 2010-09, GEMF - Faculdade de Economia, Universidade de Coimbra.
- Alcina Nunes & Elsa de Morais Sarmento, 2010. "Business Survival in Portuguese Regions," GEMF Working Papers 2010-22, GEMF - Faculdade de Economia, Universidade de Coimbra.
- Erol Taymaz & Şule Özler, 2007. "Foreign Ownership, Competition, and Survival Dynamics," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer, vol. 31(1), pages 23-42, August.
- A. Bonaccorsi & S. Giannangeli, 2010. "One or more growth processes? Evidence from new Italian firms," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 35(2), pages 137-152, September.
- Flora Bellone & Patrick Musso & Lionel Nesta & Michel Quéré, 2006.
"Productivity and Market Selection of French Manufacturing Firms in the Nineties,"
Documents de Travail de l'OFCE
2006-04, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
- Flora Bellone & Patrick Musso & Michel Quéré & Lionel Nesta, 2006. "Productivity and Market Selection of French Manufacturing Firms in the Nineties," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 97(5), pages 319-349.
- Flora Bellone & Patrick Musso & Michel Quéré & Lionel Nesta, 2006. "Productivity and market selection of french manufacturing firms in the nineties," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/7185, Sciences Po.
- Lionel Nesta & Flora Bellone & Patrick Musso & Michel Quéré, 2006. "Productivity and Market Selection of French Manufacturing Firms in the Nineties," Sciences Po publications 2006-04, Sciences Po.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Bram Boskamp).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.