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Rational Pricing of Options during the South Sea Bubble: Valuing the 22 August 1720 Options

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Author Info
Gary S. Shea () (University of St. Andrews)

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Abstract

We present evidence of rational pricing South Sea Company liabilities and call options written on South Sea shares. A previously unstudied dataset on South Sea share options is presented. The Company's capital structure of the firm is redefined so that the application of modern financial economic theories can be applied to its valuation. We present evidence that a significant portion of South Sea equity liabilities was in the form of share warrants and conversion (from bonds to shares) privileges and should be so valued. Finally we present a model of the cross-sectional behaviour of share prices, South Sea Company debt and call option values. The model is calibrated and simulated in order to produce estimates of the required return on the Company’s debt and the volatility of the firm’s asset values. We conclude that the jointly estimated value of the firm, its constituent liabilities, third-party call option values and implied volatilities are consonant with rational pricing behaviour during the Bubble, although the model requires extension in several directions in order to present a more complete picture of the South Sea Bubble.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Centre for Research into Industry, Enterprise, Finance and the Firm in its series CRIEFF Discussion Papers with number 0410.

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Date of creation: Feb 2004
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Handle: RePEc:san:crieff:0410

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Postal: School of Economics and Finance, University of St. Andrews, Fife KY16 9AL
Phone: 01334 462420
Web page: http://www.st-and.ac.uk/%7Ewww_crieff/discpaps.html

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Related research
Keywords: financial revolution in England; South Sea Company; call options; warrants; convertible bonds;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
N23 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - Europe: Pre-1913
G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Garber, Peter M, 1990. "Famous First Bubbles," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 35-54, Spring. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
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  1. Gary S. Shea, 2004. "South Sea Company Subscription Shares and Warrant Values in 1720," CRIEFF Discussion Papers 0411, Centre for Research into Industry, Enterprise, Finance and the Firm. [Downloadable!]
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This page was last updated on 2009-11-24.

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