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Non Linear Error Correction in Spot and Forward Exchange Rates

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Author Info
David McMillan
Angela J Black

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Abstract

Recent research has increasingly suggested that exchange rates may be characterised by non-linear behaviour which results from the existence of market frictions. This paper examines whether such non-linear behaviour is evident, not in rates themselves, but in the adjustment of rates back to some fundamental equilibrium. Thus, we examine a series of six spot and forward exchange rates to see whether a non-linear error-correction model, which exhibits asymmetric adjustment back to equilibrium either in terms of the size of the deviation from equilibrium or the sign of the deviation outperforms either a random walk model for rates or a linear error-correction model. Our in-sample results suggest that the non-linear models outperform both the linear models, with evidence of significant sign and size threshold effects. Out-of-sample forecasts lend further support for the non-linear models.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Centre for Research into Industry, Enterprise, Finance and the Firm in its series CRIEFF Discussion Papers with number 0103.

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Date of creation: Feb 2001
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Handle: RePEc:san:crieff:0103

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Postal: School of Economics and Finance, University of St. Andrews, Fife KY16 9AL
Phone: 01334 462420
Web page: http://www.st-and.ac.uk/%7Ewww_crieff/discpaps.html

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Related research
Keywords: Non-Linear Error-Correction; Forecasting; Spot and Forward Exchange Rates;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing
G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

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  1. Alvaro Escribano & Santiago Mira, 2001. "Nonlinear error correction models," Documentos de trabajo conjunto ULL-ULPGC 2001-03, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas de la ULPGC. [Downloadable!]
  2. Biais, Bruno & Hillion, Pierre, 1994. "Insider and Liquidity Trading in Stock and Options Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 7(4), pages 743-80. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. De Long, J Bradford & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, 1990. "Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(4), pages 703-38, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Shleifer, Andrei & Summers, Lawrence H, 1990. "The Noise Trader Approach to Finance," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 19-33, Spring. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. He, Hua & Modest, David M, 1995. "Market Frictions and Consumption-Based Asset Pricing," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(1), pages 94-117, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Kyle, Albert S, 1985. "Continuous Auctions and Insider Trading," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1315-35, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Maurice Obstfeld & Alan M. Taylor, 1997. "Nonlinear Aspects of Goods-Market Arbitrage and Adjustment: Heckscher's Commodity Points Revisited," NBER Working Papers 6053, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Dumas, Bernard, 1992. "Dynamic Equilibrium and the Real Exchange Rate in a Spatially Separated World," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(2), pages 153-80. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Escribano, Alvaro & Pfann, Gerard A., 1998. "Non-linear error correction, asymmetric adjustment and cointegration," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 197-216, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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