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Imperfect Knowledge about Asset Prices and Credit Cycles

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  • Pei Kuang

    ()
    (University of Birmingham)

Abstract

I develop an equilibrium model with collateral constraints in which rational agents are uncertain and learn about the equilibrium mapping between fundamentals and collateral prices. Bayesian updating of beliefs by agents can endogenously generate booms and busts in collateral prices and largely strengthen the role of collateral constraints as an amplification mechanism through the interaction of agents?' beliefs, collateral prices and credit limits. Over-optimism or pessimism is fueled when a surprise in price expectations is interpreted partially by the agents as a permanent change in the parameters governing the collateral price process and is validated by subsequently realized prices. I show that the model can quantitatively account for the recent US boom-bust cycle in house prices, household debt and aggregate consumption dynamics during 2001-2008. I also demonstrate that the leveraged economy with a higher steady state leverage ratio is more prone to self-reinforcing learning dynamics.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis in its series CDMA Working Paper Series with number 201303.

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Date of creation: 01 Jan 2013
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Handle: RePEc:san:cdmawp:1303

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Keywords: Booms and Busts; Collateral Constraints; Learning; Leverage; Housing;

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  1. Matteo Iacoviello & Stefano Neri, 2008. "Housing market spillovers: Evidence from an estimated DSGE model," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 659, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  2. Klaus Adam & Albert Marcet, 2010. "Booms and Busts in Asset Prices," IMES Discussion Paper Series 10-E-02, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
  3. Stefano Eusepi & Bruce Preston, 2011. "Expectations, Learning, and Business Cycle Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(6), pages 2844-72, October.
  4. Juan-Carlos Cordoba & Marla Ripoll, 2004. "Credit Cycles Redux," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1011-1046, November.
  5. Kevin X.D. Huang & Zheng Liu & Tao Zha, 2008. "Learning, adaptive expectations, and technology shocks," Working Paper Series 2008-18, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  6. Andrea Ferrero, 2011. "House Prices Booms and Current Account Deficits," 2011 Meeting Papers 1386, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  7. KevinJ. Lansing, 2010. "Rational and Near-Rational Bubbles Without Drift," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 120(549), pages 1149-1174, December.
  8. Zheng Liu & Pengfei Wang & Tao Zha, 2011. "Land-price dynamics and macroeconomic fluctuations," Working Paper 2011-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  9. Eva Carceles-Poveda & Chryssi Giannitsarou, 2008. "Asset Pricing with Adaptive Learning," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 11(3), pages 629-651, July.
  10. Enrique G. Mendoza & Emine Boz, 2009. "Financial Innovation, the Discovery of Risk, and the U.S. Credit Crisis," 2009 Meeting Papers 1273, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  11. Simeon Djankov & Oliver Hart & Caralee McLiesh & Andrei Shleifer, 2006. "Debt Enforcement Around the World," NBER Working Papers 12807, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Klaus Adam & Pei Kuang & Albert Marcet, 2011. "House Price Booms and the Current Account," NBER Working Papers 17224, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Matteo Iacoviello, 2002. "House prices, borrowing constraints and monetary policy in the business cycle," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 542, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 06 Dec 2004.
  14. Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro & Moore, John, 1997. "Credit Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(2), pages 211-48, April.
  15. Oliver Hart & John Moore, 1991. "A Theory of Debt Based on the Inalienability of Human Capital," STICERD - Theoretical Economics Paper Series /1991/233, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.
  16. Tiziana Assenzay & Michele Berardi, 2008. "Learning in a Credit Economy," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 100, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
  17. Campbell, John Y., 1994. "Inspecting the mechanism: An analytical approach to the stochastic growth model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 463-506, June.
  18. Klaus Adam & Albert Marcet, 2011. "Internal Rationality, Imperfect Market Knowledge and Asset Prices," CEP Discussion Papers dp1068, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  19. Narayana R. Kocherlakota, 2000. "Creating business cycles through credit constraints," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Sum, pages 2-10.
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Cited by:
  1. Patrick A. Pintus & Jacek Suda, 2014. "Learning Financial Shocks and the Great Recession," Working Papers halshs-00830480, HAL.
  2. Pintus, P. A. & Suda, J., 2013. "Learning Leverage Shocks and the Great Recession," Working papers 440, Banque de France.
  3. Pei Kuang, 2012. "Comment on Assenza and Berardi "Learning in a Credit Economy" (2009, JEDC)," Discussion Papers 13-06, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.

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