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Imperfect Knowledge about Asset Prices and Credit Cycles

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  • Pei Kuang

    ()
    (University of Birmingham)

Abstract

I develop an equilibrium model with collateral constraints in which rational agents are uncertain and learn about the equilibrium mapping between fundamentals and collateral prices. Bayesian updating of beliefs by agents can endogenously generate booms and busts in collateral prices and largely strengthen the role of collateral constraints as an amplification mechanism through the interaction of agents?' beliefs, collateral prices and credit limits. Over-optimism or pessimism is fueled when a surprise in price expectations is interpreted partially by the agents as a permanent change in the parameters governing the collateral price process and is validated by subsequently realized prices. I show that the model can quantitatively account for the recent US boom-bust cycle in house prices, household debt and aggregate consumption dynamics during 2001-2008. I also demonstrate that the leveraged economy with a higher steady state leverage ratio is more prone to self-reinforcing learning dynamics.

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Paper provided by Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis in its series CDMA Working Paper Series with number 201303.

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Date of creation: 01 Jan 2013
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Handle: RePEc:san:cdmawp:1303

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Keywords: Booms and Busts; Collateral Constraints; Learning; Leverage; Housing;

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  1. Matteo Iacoviello, 2005. "House Prices, Borrowing Constraints, and Monetary Policy in the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 739-764, June.
  2. Andrea Ferrero, 2011. "House Prices Booms and Current Account Deficits," 2011 Meeting Papers 1386, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  3. Juan-Carlos Cordoba & Marla Ripoll, 2004. "Credit Cycles Redux," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1011-1046, November.
  4. Enrique G. Mendoza & Emine Boz, 2010. "Financial innovation, the Discovery of Risk, and the U.S. Credit Crisis," IMF Working Papers 10/164, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Matteo Iacoviello & Stefano Neri, 2008. "Housing market spillovers : evidence from an estimated DSGE model," Working Paper Research 145, National Bank of Belgium.
  6. Stefano Eusepi & Bruce Preston, 2011. "Expectations, Learning, and Business Cycle Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(6), pages 2844-72, October.
  7. John Y. Campbell, 1992. "Inspecting the Mechanism: An Analytical Approach to the Stochastic Growth Model," NBER Working Papers 4188, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  9. Adam, Klaus & Marcet, Albert, 2011. "Internal rationality, imperfect market knowledge and asset prices," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 146(3), pages 1224-1252, May.
  10. Eva Carceles-Poveda & Chryssi Giannitsarou, 2007. "Online Appendix to Asset Pricing with Adaptive Learning," Technical Appendices carceles08, Review of Economic Dynamics.
  11. Hart, Oliver & Moore, John, 1994. "A Theory of Debt Based on the Inalienability of Human Capital," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 109(4), pages 841-79, November.
  12. Assenza, Tiziana & Berardi, Michele, 2009. "Learning in a credit economy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 1159-1169, May.
  13. pengfei Wang & Tao Zha & Zheng Liu, 2012. "Land-Price Dynamics and Macroeconomic Fluctuations," 2012 Meeting Papers 85, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  14. Narayana R. Kocherlakota, 2000. "Creating business cycles through credit constraints," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Sum, pages 2-10.
  15. Kevin X.D. Huang & Zheng Liu & Tao Zha, 2008. "Learning, Adaptive Expectations, and Technology Shocks," Vanderbilt University Department of Economics Working Papers 0807, Vanderbilt University Department of Economics.
  16. Kevin J. Lansing, 2007. "Rational and near-rational bubbles without drift," Working Paper Series 2007-10, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  17. Klaus Adam & Albert Marcet, 2010. "Booms and Busts in Asset Prices," IMES Discussion Paper Series 10-E-02, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
  18. Milani, Fabio, 2010. "Expectation Shocks and Learning as Drivers of the Business Cycle," CEPR Discussion Papers 7743, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  19. Nobuhiro Kiyotaki & John Moore, 1995. "Credit Cycles," NBER Working Papers 5083, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. Klaus Adam & Pei Kuang & Albert Marcet, 2011. "House Price Booms and the Current Account," NBER Working Papers 17224, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  21. Simeon Djankov & Oliver Hart & Caralee McLiesh & Andrei Shleifer, 2008. "Debt Enforcement around the World," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 116(6), pages 1105-1149, December.
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Cited by:
  1. Patrick A. Pintus & Jacek Suda, 2014. "Learning Financial Shocks and the Great Recession," Working Papers halshs-00830480, HAL.
  2. Pei Kuang, 2012. "Comment on Assenza and Berardi "Learning in a Credit Economy" (2009, JEDC)," Discussion Papers 13-06, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.

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