Finite Horizon Learning
AbstractIncorporating adaptive learning into macroeconomics requires assumptions about how agents incorporate their forecasts into their decision-making. We develop a theory of bounded rationality that we call finite-horizon learning. This approach generalizes the two existing benchmarks in the literature: Euler-equation learning, which assumes that consumption decisions are made to satisfy the one-step-ahead perceived Euler equation, and infinite-horizon learning, in which consumption today is determined optimally from an infinite-horizon optimization problem with given beliefs. In our approach, agents hold a finite forecasting/planning horizon. We find for the Ramsey model that the unique rational expectations equilibrium is E-stable at all horizons. However, transitional dynamics can differ significantly depending upon the horizon.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis in its series CDMA Working Paper Series with number 201204.
Date of creation: 25 Jan 2012
Date of revision:
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Planning horizon; bounded rationality; dynamic optimization; adaptive learning; Ramsey model.;
Other versions of this item:
- William A. Branch & George W. Evans & Bruce McGough, 2010. "Finite Horizon Learning," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2010-15, University of Oregon Economics Department.
- Branch, William & Evans, George W & McGough, Bruce, 2012. "Finite Horizon Learning," SIRE Discussion Papers 2012-16, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
- D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search, Learning, and Information
- D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
- D91 - Microeconomics - - Intertemporal Choice - - - Intertemporal Household Choice; Life Cycle Models and Saving
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2012-07-01 (All new papers)
- NEP-DGE-2012-07-01 (Dynamic General Equilibrium)
- NEP-FOR-2012-07-01 (Forecasting)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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