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A Model of Near-Rational Exuberance

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  • James Bullard

    ()

  • George W. Evans

    ()

  • Seppo Honkapohja

    ()

Abstract

We study how the use of judgement or “add-factors?in forecasting may disturb the set of equilibrium outcomes when agents learn using recursive methods. We isolate conditions under which new phenomena, which we call exuberance equilibria, can exist in a standard self-referential environment. Local indeterminacy is not a requirement for existence. We construct a simple asset pricing example and find that exuberance equilibria, when they exist, can be extremely volatile relative to fundamental equilibria. learning, recurrent hyperinflations, and macroeconomic policy to combat liquidity traps and deflation.

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File URL: http://www.st-andrews.ac.uk/economics/CDMA/papers/wp0902.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis in its series CDMA Working Paper Series with number 200902.

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Date of creation: 15 Feb 2009
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Handle: RePEc:san:cdmawp:0902

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Keywords: Learning; expectations; excess volatility; bounded rationality.;

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  1. Ricardo J. Caballero, 1992. "Near-Rationality, Heterogeneity and Aggregate Consumption," NBER Working Papers 4035, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Branch, William A. & McGough, Bruce, 2005. "Consistent expectations and misspecification in stochastic non-linear economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 659-676, April.
  3. Lagunoff, Roger & Schreft, Stacey L, 1999. "Financial Fragility with Rational And Irrational Exuberance," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 31(3), pages 531-60, August.
  4. Laurence Ball, 2000. "Near-Rationality and Inflation in Two Monetary Regimes," NBER Working Papers 7988, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Lars O. Svensson & Robert J. Tetlow, 2005. "Optimal Policy Projections," NBER Working Papers 11392, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Lars E.O. Svensson, 2005. "Monetary Policy with Judgment: Forecast Targeting," NBER Working Papers 11167, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 1999. "Learning dynamics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 7, pages 449-542 Elsevier.
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  9. Brock, William A. & Hommes, Cars H., 1998. "Heterogeneous beliefs and routes to chaos in a simple asset pricing model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(8-9), pages 1235-1274, August.
  10. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, . "Economic Dynamics with Learning: New Stability Results," Computing in Economics and Finance 1997 51, Society for Computational Economics.
  11. Lars E. O. Svensson, 2003. "What is Wrong with Taylor Rules? Using Judgment in Monetary Policy through Targeting Rules," NBER Working Papers 9421, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  14. repec:cup:macdyn:v:2:y:1998:i:3:p:287-321 is not listed on IDEAS
  15. James Bullard & George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2008. "Monetary Policy, Judgment, and Near-Rational Exuberance," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(3), pages 1163-77, June.
  16. Ottaviani, Marco & Sorensen, Peter Norman, 2006. "The strategy of professional forecasting," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(2), pages 441-466, August.
  17. Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo & Honkapohja, Seppo, 1994. "Learning, convergence, and stability with multiple rational expectations equilibria," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(5), pages 1071-1098, May.
  18. Sargent, Thomas J., 1991. "Equilibrium with signal extraction from endogenous variables," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 245-273, April.
  19. Akerlof, George A & Yellen, Janet L, 1985. "A Near-rational Model of the Business Cycle, with Wage and Price Intertia," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 100(5), pages 823-38, Supp..
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Christian Hellwig & Laura Veldkamp, 2006. "Knowing what others Know: Coordination motives in information acquisition," 2006 Meeting Papers 361, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  2. Roger E.A. Farmer & Carine Nourry & Alain Venditti, 2013. "The Inefficient Markets Hypothesis: Why Financial Markets Do Not Work Well in the Real World," AMSE Working Papers 1311, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, Marseille, France, revised 26 Feb 2013.
  3. Volha Audzei, 2012. "Efficiency of Central Bank Policy During the Crisis : Role of Expectations in Reinforcing Hoarding Behavior," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp477, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economic Institute, Prague.
  4. Hommes, Cars & Zhu, Mei, 2014. "Behavioral learning equilibria," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 778-814.
  5. Georges, Christophre, 2008. "Staggered updating in an artificial financial market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 2809-2825, September.
  6. Gaballo, G., 2012. "Good Luck or Good Policy? An Expectational Theory of Macro-Volatility Switches," Working papers 402, Banque de France.
  7. Murray, James, 2011. "Learning and judgment shocks in U.S. business cycles," MPRA Paper 29257, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Cars Hommes & Mei Zhu, 2013. "Behavioral Learning Equilibria," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-014/II, Tinbergen Institute.

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