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Exit Strategies and Their Impact on the Euro Area - A Model Based View

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  • Ansgar Belke

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Abstract

This paper comments on the pros and cons of exit strategies. The focus is on the impact on the Euro area economy of the exit from unconventional monetary policies (UMP) by the Fed, which appears to be the first central bank to lay out an exiting path. In this context, it discusses the issue of policy coordination between central banks in the light of the substantial potential spillover effects via capital flows and exchange rate adjustments of unconventional monetary policies. The risks of a premature versus a delayed exit are assessed. In particular, the paper looks at the risk associated to spillover effects from UMP exit and the different shapes of exit paths. It also analyses exit strategies in a wider context and the associated financial stability risks, with a specific focus on the role of uncertainty. The paper presents estimates of the impact of the Fed’s exit from UMP in 2014 on the Euro area economy using new and innovative global IMF models. Finally, specific policy options to minimize exit risks are discussed and compared.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen in its series Ruhr Economic Papers with number 0467.

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Length: 21 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2014
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:rwi:repape:0467

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Related research

Keywords: Federal funds rate; exit strategies; global spillovers; international policy coordination; sudden stop;

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References

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  1. Ansgar Belke & Bernhard Herz & Lukas Vogel, 2006. "Exchange Rate Regimes and Reforms: A Panel Analysis for the World versus OECD Countries," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(3), pages 317-342, December.
  2. Francis Vitek, 2013. "Policy Analysis and Forecasting in the World Economy: A Panel Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Approach," IMF Working Papers 13/253, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Ansgar Belke & Jens Klose, 2012. "Modifying Taylor Reaction Functions in Presence of the Zero-Lower-Bound: Evidence for the ECB and the Fed," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1218, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  4. Ansgar Belke & Matthias Göcke & Martin Guenther, 2012. "Exchange Rate Bands of Inaction and Play-Hysteresis in German Exports – Sectoral Evidence for Some OECD Destinations," Ruhr Economic Papers 0327, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
  5. Kristin Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 1999. "No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Co-movements," NBER Working Papers 7267, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Derek Anderson & Ben Hunt & Mika Kortelainen & Michael Kumhof & Douglas Laxton & Dirk Muir & Susanna Mursula & Stephen Snudden, 2013. "Getting to Know GIMF: The Simulation Properties of the Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal Model," IMF Working Papers 13/55, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Stefan Gerlach, 2013. "Monetary Policy after the Crisis," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 81, pages 16-34, 09.
  8. Ansgar Belke & Ingo Bordon & Ulrich Volz, 2012. "Effects of Global Liquidity on Commodity and Food Prices," Ruhr Economic Papers 0323, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
  9. Morten L. Bech & Elizabeth Klee, 2010. "The mechanics of a graceful exit: interest on reserves and segmentation in the federal funds market," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2010-07, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  10. Andrew T. Foerster, 2011. "Financial crises, unconventional monetary policy exit strategies, and agents' expectations," Research Working Paper RWP 11-04, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
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