Oil Price Effects on Land Use Competition – An Empirical Analysis
AbstractThe increasing use of food commodities for biofuel production has substantial impact on prices and quantities of these and other food commodities. It is therefore likely that this trend also intensifies the competition for arable land. However, evidence for this hypothesis is generated by calibrated models while empirical evidence is rare. In this paper we analyze the effects of crude oil price and prices of input factors for biofuel production on prices, areas and quantities of selected food commodities empirically performing Granger causality and cointegration tests as well as calculating impulse response functions. On the world aggregated level we reveal that the crude petroleum price only Granger causes the price of maize and wheat but the area used for the production of maize, soybean oil, sugar and wheat. The effect on wheat indicates an indirect effect on land use. Moreover, the price index of fats and oils has a stronger effect on prices, areas and quantities of other food commodities. At the country level, we identify that for the U.S., the maize price is the key variable influencing area and quantity of cereals. Additionally, in Indonesia and Malaysia we find that the palm oil price has significant effects on the area and quantity of rice. Despite these positive effects of commodity prices on land use we find no evidence for direct land competition between oil crops and cereals.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen in its series Ruhr Economic Papers with number 0340.
Length: 24 pages
Date of creation: May 2012
Date of revision:
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- L71 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Primary Products and Construction - - - Mining, Extraction, and Refining: Hydrocarbon Fuels
- Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices
- Q42 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Alternative Energy Sources
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-AGR-2012-07-23 (Agricultural Economics)
- NEP-ALL-2012-07-23 (All new papers)
- NEP-ENE-2012-07-23 (Energy Economics)
- NEP-SEA-2012-07-23 (South East Asia)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Saraly Andrade de Sa & Charles Palmer & Stefanie Engel, 2010.
"Ethanol production, food and forests,"
LSE Research Online Documents on Economics
27950, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Andrade de Sa, Saraly & Palmer, Charles & Engel, Stefanie, 2010. "Ethanol Production, Food and Forests," Proceedings of the German Development Economics Conference, Hannover 2010 21, Verein für Socialpolitik, Research Committee Development Economics.
- Saraly Andrade de Sa & Charles Palmer & Stefanie Engel, 2010. "Ethanol Production, Food and Forests," Environmental Economy and Policy Research Working Papers 48.2010, University of Cambridge, Department of Land Economics, revised 2010.
- Yu, Tun-Hsiang (Edward) & Bessler, David A. & Fuller, Stephen W., 2006. "Cointegration and Causality Analysis of World Vegetable Oil and Crude Oil Prices," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA 21439, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
- Saghaian, Sayed H., 2010. "The Impact of the Oil Sector on Commodity Prices: Correlation or Causation?," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 42(03), August.
- Peters, Jörg & Thielmann, Sascha, 2008.
"Promoting biofuels: Implications for developing countries,"
Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1538-1544, April.
- Jörg Peters & Sascha Thielmann, 2008. "Promoting Biofuels: Implications for Developing Countries," Ruhr Economic Papers 0038, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
- Campiche, Jody L. & Bryant, Henry L. & Richardson, James W. & Outlaw, Joe L., 2007. "Examining the Evolving Correspondence Between Petroleum Prices and Agricultural Commodity Prices," 2007 Annual Meeting, July 29-August 1, 2007, Portland, Oregon TN 9881, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
- Searchinger, Timothy & Heimlich, Ralph & Houghton, R. A. & Dong, Fengxia & Elobeid, Amani & Fabiosa, Jacinto F. & Tokgoz, Simla & Hayes, Dermot J. & Yu, Hun-Hsiang, 2008. "Use of U.S. Croplands for Biofuels Increases Greenhouse Gases Through Emissions from Land-Use Change," Staff General Research Papers 12881, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
- Muhammad, Andrew & Kebede, Ellene, 2009. "The Emergence of an Agro-Energy Sector: Is Agriculture Importing Instability from the Oil Sector?," Choices, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 24(1).
- Murphy, Richard & Woods, Jeremy & Black, Mairi & McManus, Marcelle, 2011. "Global developments in the competition for land from biofuels," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(S1), pages S52-S61.
- Harri, Ardian & Nalley, Lawton Lanier & Hudson, Darren, 2009. "The Relationship between Oil, Exchange Rates, and Commodity Prices," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 41(02), August.
- Murphy, Richard & Woods, Jeremy & Black, Mairi & McManus, Marcelle, 2011. "Global developments in the competition for land from biofuels," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(Supplemen), pages S52-S61, January.
- Angelsen, Arild, 1999. "Agricultural expansion and deforestation: modelling the impact of population, market forces and property rights," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 185-218, February.
- Roland Döhrn & Philipp an de Meulen & Tobias Kitlinski & Torsten Schmidt & Simeon Vosen, 2012. "Die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung im Ausland: Krise im Euro-Raum dämpft Weltwirtschaft," RWI Konjunkturbericht, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, pages 35, 09.
- Pavel Ciaian & d'Artis Kancs & Miroslava Rajcaniova, 2012.
"Bioenergy and Global Land Use Change,"
EERI Research Paper Series
EERI_RP_2012_12, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
- Ciaian, Pavel & Kancs, d'Artis & Rajcaniova, Miroslava, 2012. "Bioenergy and Land Use Change," 2012 Conference, August 18-24, 2012, Foz do Iguacu, Brazil 126379, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sabine Weiler).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.