Forecasting House Prices in Germany
AbstractIn the academic debate there is a broad consensus that house price fluctuations have a substantial impact on financial stability and real economic activity. Therefore, it is important to have timely information on actual and expected house price developments. The aim of this paper is to measure the latest price movements in different real estate markets in Germany and forecast near-term price developments. Therefore we construct hedonic house price indices based on real estate advertisements on the internet platform ImmobilienScout24. Then, starting with a naive AR(p) model as a benchmark, we investigate whether VAR and ARDL models using additional macroeconomic information can improve the forecasting performance as measured by the mean squared forecast error (MSFE). While these models reduce the forecast error only slightly, forecast combination approaches enhance the predictive power considerably..
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen in its series Ruhr Economic Papers with number 0294.
Length: 23 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2011
Date of revision:
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C43 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Index Numbers and Aggregation
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2012-01-03 (All new papers)
- NEP-FOR-2012-01-03 (Forecasting)
- NEP-URE-2012-01-03 (Urban & Real Estate Economics)
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