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Abstract

The aggregate average unemployment rate in a given country is essentially the result of individual workers' transitions between the three core labor force states, employment, unemployment, and inactivity. The dynamics of these transitions depend both, on individual duration in a particular state and the transition probabilities between states. Individual transitions, in turn, depend on observable and unobserved factors. Simultaneously, person-specific dynamics may be influenced by swings of the business cycle. This paper analyzes these labor force status dynamics for the East and West German labor market, separately using comprehensive data on monthly transitions from the SOEP. The results show that the experience of high unemployment rates is more sensitive to cyclical behavior for certain demographic groups, specifically unskilled and young workers. Heterogeneity in unemployment and transition rates differ between East and West Germany, as well as between the sexes. In East Germany, all demographic cells are almost entirely detached from the cycle. Women are less influenced by the cycle in their re-employment rate from unemployment to employment.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen in its series Ruhr Economic Papers with number 0139.

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Length: 30 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:rwi:repape:0139

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Related research

Keywords: Labor force; unemployment dynamics; business cycle; worker heterogeneity;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:

• E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
• J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
• J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, and Vacancies - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

References

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1. Burda, Michael & Wyplosz, Charles, 1994. "Gross worker and job flows in Europe," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(6), pages 1287-1315, June.
   
   • Burda, Michael C & Wyplosz, Charles, 1993. "Gross Worker and Job Flows in Europe," CEPR Discussion Papers 868, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
2. Steve J. Davis & John Haltiwanger, 1991. "Gross Job Creation, Gross Job Destruction and Employment Reallocation," NBER Working Papers 3728, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
   
   • Davis, Steven J & Haltiwanger, John C, 1992. "Gross Job Creation, Gross Job Destruction, and Employment Reallocation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(3), pages 819-63, August.
   • Davis, S.J. & Haltiwanger, J., 1989. "Gross Job Creation, Gross Job Destruction And Employment Reallocation," Working Papers e-89-33, Hoover Institution, Stanford University.
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   • Mortensen, Dale T & Pissarides, Christopher A, 1994. "Job Creation and Job Destruction in the Theory of Unemployment," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(3), pages 397-415, July.
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   • Blanchard, Olivier & Wolfers, Justin, 2000. "The Role of Shocks and Institutions in the Rise of European Unemployment: The Aggregate Evidence," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(462), pages C1-33, March.
6. Horst Siebert, 1997. "Labor Market Rigidities: At the Root of Unemployment in Europe," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(3), pages 37-54, Summer.
7. Steven J. Davis & John Haltiwanger, 1990. "Gross Job Creation and Destruction: Microeconomic Evidence and Macroeconomic Implications," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1990, Volume 5, pages 123-186 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
8. Abowd, John M & Zellner, Arnold, 1985. "Estimating Gross Labor-Force Flows," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 3(3), pages 254-83, June.
9. Hilary Hoynes, 1999. "The Employment, Earnings, and Income of Less Skilled Workers Over the Business Cycle," NBER Working Papers 7188, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
   
   • Note: For best results & the figures should be printed on a non-Postscript printer. Hoynes & H., . "The Employment, Earnings, and Income of Less-Skilled Workers over the Business Cycle," Institute for Research on Poverty Discussion Papers 1199-99, University of Wisconsin Institute for Research on Poverty.
   • Hilary Williamson Hoynes, 1999. "The Employment, Earnings, and Income of Less Skilled Workers Over the Business Cycle," JCPR Working Papers 85, Northwestern University/University of Chicago Joint Center for Poverty Research.
10. Oliver Jean Blanchard & Peter Diamond, 1989. "The Beveridge Curve," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 20(1), pages 1-76.
11. Poterba, James M & Summers, Lawrence H, 1986. "Reporting Errors and Labor Market Dynamics," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(6), pages 1319-38, November.
12. Schmidt, Christoph M., 1999. "The Heterogeneity and Cyclical Sensitivity of Unemployment: An Exploration of German Labor Market Flows," IZA Discussion Papers 84, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
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Citations

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Cited by:

1. Matthias S. Hertweck & Oliver Sigrist, 2013. "The Aggregate Effects of the Hartz Reforms in Germany," Working papers 2013/01, Faculty of Business and Economics - University of Basel.
   
   • Matthias S. Hertweck & Oliver Sigrist, 2013. "The Aggregate Effects of the Hartz Reforms in Germany," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 532, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
   • Matthias S. Hertweck & Oliver Sigrist, 2012. "The Aggregate Effects of the Hartz Reforms in Germany," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz 2012-38, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz.
2. Rubart, Jens & Semmler, Willi, 2007. "East German Unemployment from a Macroeconomic Perspective," Darmstadt Discussion Papers in Economics 35712, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute of Economics (VWL).
   
   • Rubart, Jens & Semmler, Willi, 2007. "East German Unemployment from a Macroeconomic Perspective," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute of Economics (VWL) 35712, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute of Economics (VWL).
3. Bachmann, Ronald & Schaffner, Sandra, 2009. "Biases in the measurement of labour market dynamics," Technical Reports 2009,12, Technische Universität Dortmund, Sonderforschungsbereich 475: Komplexitätsreduktion in multivariaten Datenstrukturen.
4. Schaffner, Sandra, 2011. "Heterogeneity in the cyclical sensitivity of job-to-job flows," Zeitschrift für ArbeitsmarktForschung - Journal for Labour Market Research, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany], vol. 43(4), pages 263-275.
   
   • Schaffner, Sandra, 2009. "Heterogeneity in the cyclical sensitivity of job-to-job flows," Technical Reports 2009,13, Technische Universität Dortmund, Sonderforschungsbereich 475: Komplexitätsreduktion in multivariaten Datenstrukturen.
   • Sandra Schaffner, 2009. "Heterogeneity in the Cyclical Sensitivity of Job-to-Job Flows," Ruhr Economic Papers 0118, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
5. Nordmeier, Daniela, 2012. "Worker flows in Germany: Inspecting the time aggregation bias," IAB Discussion Paper 201212, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
6. Marcus Tamm, 2010. "Child Benefit Reform and Labor Market Participation," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics, vol. 230(3), pages 313-327, June.
   
   • Marcus Tamm, 2009. "Child Benefit Reform and Labor Market Participation," Ruhr Economic Papers 0097, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.

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