Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Trade-FDI Linkages in a System of Gravity Equations for German Regional Data

Contents:

Author Info

  • Timo Mitze

    ()

  • Björn Alecke
  • Gerhard Untiedt

Abstract

We analyse the nature of German trade-FDI linkages within the EU27 based on a simultaneous equation gravity approach for imports, exports, in- and outward FDI stocks.We adopt both a Hausman-Taylor (1981) IV approach (3SLS-GMM) and rival non-IV estimation (the system extension to the Fixed Effects Vector Decomposition model recently proposed by Plümper & Tröger, 2007).Turning to the results, both estimators give empirical support for our chosen gravity setup as an appropriate framework in explaining German trade and FDI activity. Looking carefully at cross-variable linkages we basically find substitutive links between trade flows and outward FDI in line with earlier empirical evidence for Germany. Building upon German state level data we are also able to analyse the sensitivity of the results for regional sub-samples. The latter disaggregation hints at structural differences among the trade and FDI activity of the twoWest and East German macro regions on the one hand, and also their interaction with the ’core’ EU15 member states opposed to the overall EU27 aggregate on the other hand.TakingWest German–EU27 trade & FDI as an example, the identified pairwise linkages closely follow the theoretical predictions of New Trade Theory models as in Baldwin & Ottaviano (2001): That is, when trade is merely of intra-industry type with non-zero trade costs,we observe export replacement effects of FDI.However, at the same time outward FDI stimulates trade via reverse good imports. For the West German–EU15 sub-sample we even reveal complementaries among export and outward FDI activity.This strongly advocates to care for the regional dimension in analysing cross-variable linkages of trade and FDI.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://repec.rwi-essen.de/files/REP_09_084.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen in its series Ruhr Economic Papers with number 0084.

as in new window
Length: 52 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:rwi:repape:0084

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Hohenzollernstraße 1-3, 45128 Essen
Phone: (0201)8149-0
Fax: (0201)8149-200
Email:
Web page: http://www.rwi-essen.de/
More information through EDIRC

Order Information:
Web: http://www.rwi-essen.de/publikationen/

Related research

Keywords: Trade; FDI; panel data; simultaneous equations;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Maddala, G S & Wu, Shaowen, 1999. " A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 631-52, Special I.
  2. Elhanan Helpman, 2006. "Trade, FDI, and the Organization of Firms," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 2118, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  3. Helpman, Elhanan, 1987. "Imperfect competition and international trade: Evidence from fourteen industrial countries," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 62-81, March.
  4. James R. Markusen, 1995. "The Boundaries of Multinational Enterprises and the Theory of International Trade," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(2), pages 169-189, Spring.
  5. J. Caetano & A. Galego & E. Vaz & C. Vieira & I. Vieira, 2002. "The Eastward Enlargement of the Eurozone: Trade and FDI," Eastward Enlargement of the Euro-zone Working Papers wp07, Free University Berlin, Jean Monnet Centre of Excellence, revised 01 Aug 2002.
  6. Peter Egger, . "On the Problem of Endogenous Unobserved Effects in the Estimation of Gravity Models," WIFO Working Papers 132, WIFO.
  7. Brenton, Paul & DiMauro, Francesca & Lücke, Matthias, 1998. "Economic integration and FDI: an empirical analysis of foreign investment in the EU and in Central and Eastern Europe," Kiel Working Papers 890, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  8. Peter Egger, 2001. "SUR Estimation of Error Components Models With AR(1) Disturbances and Unobserved Endogenous Effects," WIFO Working Papers 171, WIFO.
  9. Millimet, Daniel & Henderson, Daniel, 2006. "Is Gravity Linear?," Departmental Working Papers 0517, Southern Methodist University, Department of Economics.
  10. Guglielmo Caporale & Christophe Rault & Robert Sova & Anamaria Sova, 2009. "On the bilateral trade effects of free trade agreements between the EU-15 and the CEEC-4 countries," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 145(2), pages 189-206, July.
  11. Martin S. Eichenbaum & Lars Peter Hansen & Kenneth J. Singleton, 1986. "A Time Series Analysis of Representative Agent Models of Consumption andLeisure Choice Under Uncertainty," NBER Working Papers 1981, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Pain, Nigel & Wakelin, Katharine, 1998. "Export Performance and the Role of Foreign Direct Investment," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 66(0), pages 62-88, Supplemen.
  13. Elhanan Helpman & Marc J. Melitz & Stephen R. Yeaple, 2003. "Export versus FDI," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1998, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  14. Jakab, Zoltan M. & Kovacs, Mihaly A. & Oszlay, Andras, 2001. "How Far Has Trade Integration Advanced?: An Analysis of the Actual and Potential Trade of Three Central and Eastern European Countries," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 276-292, June.
  15. I-Hui Cheng & Howard J. Wall, 2004. "Controlling for heterogeneity in gravity models of trade and integration," Working Papers 1999-010, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  16. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 265-312.
  17. Linda S. Goldberg & Michael W. Klein, 1999. "International Trade and Factor Mobility: An Empirical Investigation," NBER Working Papers 7196, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Timo Mitze, 2009. "Endogeneity in Panel Data Models with Time-Varying and Time-Fixed Regressors: To IV or not IV?," Ruhr Economic Papers 0083, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
  19. Badi Baltagi & Seuck Song, 2006. "Unbalanced panel data: A survey," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 47(4), pages 493-523, October.
  20. J. A. Hausman, 1976. "Specification Tests in Econometrics," Working papers 185, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  21. Dufour, J.M. & Khalaf, L., 2000. "Exact Tests for Contemporaneous Correlation of Disturbances in Seemingly Unrelated Regressions," Cahiers de recherche 2000-11, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
  22. Harvey, Andrew C & Phillips, Garry D A, 1982. "Testing for Contemporaneous Correlation of Disturbances in Systems of Regression Equations," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(2), pages 79-91, November.
  23. Ana Paula Africano & Manuela Magalhaes, 2005. "FDI and Trade in Portugal: a gravity analysis," FEP Working Papers 174, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
  24. Peter Egger, . "A Note on the Proper Econometric Specification of the Gravity Equation," WIFO Working Papers 108, WIFO.
  25. Oscar Bajo & María Montero, . "Foreign direct investment and trade: A causality analysis," Studies on the Spanish Economy 06, FEDEA.
  26. Sascha O. Becker & Marc-Andreas Muendler, 2006. "The Effect of FDI on Job Separation," CESifo Working Paper Series 1864, CESifo Group Munich.
  27. Lipsey, Robert E & Weiss, Merle Yahr, 1984. "Foreign Production and Exports of Individual Firms," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 66(2), pages 304-08, May.
  28. Yongcheol Shin & Laura Serlenga, 2007. "Gravity models of intra-EU trade: application of the CCEP-HT estimation in heterogeneous panels with unobserved common time-specific factors," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 361-381.
  29. Baltagi, Badi H., 1981. "Simultaneous equations with error components," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 189-200, November.
  30. Zwinkels, Remco C.J. & Beugelsdijk, Sjoerd, 2010. "Gravity equations: Workhorse or Trojan horse in explaining trade and FDI patterns across time and space?," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 102-115, February.
  31. Choi, In, 2001. "Unit root tests for panel data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 249-272, April.
  32. Li-Gang Liu & Edward M. Graham, 1998. "The Relationship Between Trade and Foreign Investment: Empirical Results for Taiwan and South Korea," Working Paper Series WP98-7, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
  33. David L. Carr & James R. Markusen & Keith E. Maskus, 2001. "Estimating the Knowledge-Capital Model of the Multinational Enterprise," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(3), pages 693-708, June.
  34. Kemal Turkcan, 2007. "Outward Foreign Direct Investment and Intermediate Goods Exports: Evidence from the USA," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 112, pages 51-71.
  35. Peter Egger & Michael Pfaffermayr, 2001. "Distance, Trade and FDI: A Hausman-Taylor SUR Approach," WIFO Working Papers 164, WIFO.
  36. James G. MacKinnon, 2002. "Bootstrap inference in econometrics," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 35(4), pages 615-645, November.
  37. Deborah L. Swenson, 2004. "Foreign Investment and the Mediation of Trade Flows," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(4), pages 609-629, 09.
  38. Lionel Fontagné & Michaël Pajot, 1997. "How Foreign Direct Investment Affects International Trade and Competitiveness: an Empirical Assessment," Working Papers 1997-17, CEPII research center.
  39. James R. Markusen & Keith E. Maskus, 1999. "Multinational Firms: Reconciling Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 7163, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  40. Christopher F Baum & Mark E Schaffer & Steven Stillman, 2002. "IVREG2: Stata module for extended instrumental variables/2SLS and GMM estimation," Statistical Software Components S425401, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 28 Jul 2014.
  41. James H. Stock & Motohiro Yogo, 2002. "Testing for Weak Instruments in Linear IV Regression," NBER Technical Working Papers 0284, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  42. Claudia M. Buch & Daniel Piazolo, 2000. "Capital and Trade Flows in Europe and the Impact of Enlargement," Kiel Working Papers 1001, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  43. Björn Alecke, 2003. "Das Handelsvolumen der ostdeutschen Bundesländer mit Polen und Tschechien im Zuge der EU-Erweiterung: Ergebnisse auf Basis eines Gravitationsmodells," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 72(4), pages 565-578.
  44. Binder, M. & Hsaio, C. & Pesaran, M.H., 2000. "Estimation and Inference in Short Panel Vector Autoregressions with Unit Roots and Cointegration," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0003, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  45. Signe Krogstrup & Sébastien Wälti, 2008. "Do fiscal rules cause budgetary outcomes?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 136(1), pages 123-138, July.
  46. Blundell, R. & Bond, S., 1995. "Initial Conditions and Moment Restrictions in Dynamic Panel Data Models," Economics Papers 104, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  47. Gabrielle Lipworth & Tamim Bayoumi, 1997. "Japanese Foreign Direct Investment and Regional Trade," IMF Working Papers 97/103, International Monetary Fund.
  48. Bruce A. Blonigen, 1999. "In Search of Substitution Between Foreign Production and Exports," NBER Working Papers 7154, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  49. Baldwin, Richard E. & Ottaviano, Gianmarco I. P., 2001. "Multiproduct multinationals and reciprocal FDI dumping," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 429-448, August.
  50. Hausman, Jerry A. & Taylor, William E., 1981. "Panel data and unobservable individual effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 155-155, May.
  51. Jarko Fidrmuc, 2009. "Gravity models in integrated panels," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 37(2), pages 435-446, October.
  52. Baldwin, Richard & Taglioni, Daria, 2006. "Gravity for Dummies and Dummies for Gravity Equations," CEPR Discussion Papers 5850, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  53. Laszlo Matyas, 1997. "Proper Econometric Specification of the Gravity Model," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(3), pages 363-368, 05.
  54. Belke, Ansgar & Spies, Julia, 2008. "Enlarging the EMU to the East: What Effects on Trade?," IZA Discussion Papers 3647, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  55. Baltagi, Badi H. & Chang, Young-Jae, 2000. "Simultaneous Equations With Incomplete Panels," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(02), pages 269-279, April.
  56. Baltagi, Badi H, 1980. "On Seemingly Unrelated Regressions with Error Components," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(6), pages 1547-51, September.
  57. Arellano, Manuel & Bond, Stephen, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(2), pages 277-97, April.
  58. Dieter Schumacher & Parvati Trübswetter, 2000. "Volume and Comparative Advantage in East-West Trade," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 223, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  59. Clausing, Kimberly A, 2000. "Does Multinational Activity Displace Trade?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 38(2), pages 190-205, April.
  60. S. Lael Brainard, 1993. "A Simple Theory of Multinational Corporations and Trade with a Trade-Off Between Proximity and Concentration," NBER Working Papers 4269, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  61. Ulla Kunze & Dieter Schumacher, 2003. "Position Ostdeutschlands beim Export nach Polen und Tschechien ausbaufähig," DIW Wochenbericht, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 70(33), pages 515-518.
  62. Jyothi Pantulu & Jessie P.H. Poon, 2003. "Foreign direct investment and international trade: evidence from the US and Japan," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 3(3), pages 241-259, July.
  63. Mitze, Timo & Alecke, Björn & Untiedt, Gerhard, 2008. "Trade, FDI and Cross-Variable Linkages: A German (Macro-)Regional Perspective," MPRA Paper 12245, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  64. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July.
  65. Prucha, Ingmar R, 1984. "On the Asymptotic Efficiency of Feasible Aitken Estimators for Seemingly Unrelated Regression Models with Error Components," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(1), pages 203-07, January.
  66. Markusen, James R. & Melvin, James R. & Maskus, Keith E. & Kaempfer, William, 1995. "International trade: theory and evidence," MPRA Paper 21989, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  67. Bedassa Tadesse & Michael Ryan, 2004. "Host market characteristics, FDI, and the FDI - trade relationship," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(2), pages 199-229.
  68. Wang, Z.K. & Winters, L.A., 1992. "The Trading Potential of Eastern Europe," Discussion Papers 92-21, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
  69. José Manuel Martins Caetano & Aurora Galego, 2003. "An Analysis of Actual and Potential Trade between the EU Countries and the Eastern European Countries," Economics Working Papers 3_2003, University of Évora, Department of Economics (Portugal).
  70. Gert-Jan M. Linders & Henri L.F. de Groot, 2006. "Estimation of the Gravity Equation in the Presence of Zero Flows," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 06-072/3, Tinbergen Institute.
  71. Etzo, Ivan, 2007. "Determinants of interregional migration in Italy:A panel data analysis," MPRA Paper 5307, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  72. Cornwell, Christopher & Schmidt, Peter & Wyhowski, Donald, 1992. "Simultaneous equations and panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1-2), pages 151-181.
  73. Gardner, Robert, 1998. "Unobservable individual effects in unbalanced panel data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 39-42, January.
  74. Baltagi, Badi H. & Bresson, Georges & Pirotte, Alain, 2003. "Fixed effects, random effects or Hausman-Taylor?: A pretest estimator," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 79(3), pages 361-369, June.
  75. Sven Schreiber, 2008. "The Hausman Test Statistic can be Negative even Asymptotically," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics, vol. 228(4), pages 394-405, August.
  76. Lipsey, Robert E & Weiss, Merle Yahr, 1981. "Foreign Production and Exports in Manufacturing Industries," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 63(4), pages 488-94, November.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Mitze, Timo, 2010. "Estimating Gravity Models of International Trade with Correlated Time-Fixed Regressors: To IV or not IV?," MPRA Paper 23540, University Library of Munich, Germany.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rwi:repape:0084. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sabine Weiler).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.