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Identifying Sources of Business Cycle Fluctuations in Germany 1975–1998

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  • Oliver Holtemöller

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  • Torsten Schmidt

Abstract

In this paper, we estimate a small New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model for Germany for the period from 1975 to 1998 and use it to identify the structural shocks, which have driven the business cycle. For this purpose we apply indirect inference methods, that is we specify the parameters of the theoretical model such that simulated data mimics observed data as closely as possible. In addition to the identification of structural shocks, we uncover the unobservable output gap, which is a prominent indicator in business cycle analysis. Furthermore,we show to which extent each identified shock has contributed to the business cycle fluctuations.

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File URL: http://repec.rwi-essen.de/files/REP_08_068.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen in its series Ruhr Economic Papers with number 0068.

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Length: 20 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:rwi:repape:0068

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Related research

Keywords: Business cycle accounting; dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models; Germany; indirect inference; New Keynesian macroeconomics;

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