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As if or What? – Expectations and Optimization in a Simple Macroeconomic Environment

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Author Info
Michael W.M. Roos ()
Wolfgang J. Luhan

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Abstract

In this paper we report the results of a laboratory experiment, in which we observed the behavior of agents in a simple macroeconomic setting. The structure of the economy was only partially known to the players which is a realistic feature of our experiment. We investigate whether subjects manage to approach optimal behavior even if they lack important information. Furthermore, we analyze subjects’ perceptions of the model and whether their behavior is consistent with their perceptions. The full information model predicts changes of employment correctly, but not the level of employment. In the aggregate, subjects have correct perceptions, although individual perceptions are biased.We finally show that deviations from the full information solution are due to optimization failures than than misperceptions.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen in its series Ruhr Economic Papers with number 0055.

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Length: 39 pages
Date of creation: Jul 2008
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Handle: RePEc:rwi:repape:0055

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Related research
Keywords: Methodology; macroeconomic experiment; perceptions; optimization; expectations;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
D01 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Microeconomic Behavior: Underlying Principles
D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search, Learning, and Information
D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
B41 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Economic Methodology - - - Economic Methodology
C91 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Individual Behavior

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Bernasconi, Michele & Kirchkamp, Oliver, 2000. "Why do monetary policies matter? An experimental study of saving and inflation in an overlapping generations model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 315-343, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Hommes, Cars & Sonnemans, Joep & Tuinstra, Jan & van de Velden, Henk, 2005. "A strategy experiment in dynamic asset pricing," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 823-843, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Heemeijer, P. & Hommes, C.H. & Sonnemans, J. & Tuinstra, J., 2006. "Price Stability and Volatility in Markets with Positive and Negative Expectations Feedback: An Experimental Investigation," CeNDEF Working Papers 06-05, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Klaus Adam, 2007. "Experimental Evidence on the Persistence of Output and Inflation," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 117(520), pages 603-636, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Sonnemans, Joep & Hommes, Cars & Tuinstra, Jan & van de Velden, Henk, 2004. "The instability of a heterogeneous cobweb economy: a strategy experiment on expectation formation," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 453-481, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Joep Sonnemans & Peter Heemeijer & Cars Hommes, 2005. "Price expectations in the laboratory in positive and negative feedback systems," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 165, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
  7. Bernasconi, Michele & Kirchkamp, Oliver & Paruolo, Paolo, 2004. "Do fiscal variables affect fiscal expectations? Experiments with real world and lab data," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 04-27, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim & Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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