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Predictive Inference for Integrated Volatility

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Author Info
Valentina Corradi () (Queen Mary, University of London)
Norman Swanson () (Rutgers University)
Walter Distaso () (Imperial College)

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Abstract

In recent years, numerous volatility-based derivative products have been engineered. This has led to interest in constructing conditional predictive densities and confidence intervals for integrated volatility. In this paper, we propose nonparametric kernel estimators of the aforementioned quantities. The kernel functions used in our analysis are based on different realized volatility measures, which are constructed using the ex post variation of asset prices. A set of sufficient conditions under which the estimators are asymptotically equivalent to their unfeasible counterparts, based on the unobservable volatility process, is provided. Asymptotic normality is also established. The efficacy of the estimators is examined via Monte Carlo experimentation, and an empirical illustration based upon data from the New York Stock Exchange is provided.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Rutgers University, Department of Economics in its series Departmental Working Papers with number 200616.

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Length: 20 pages
Date of creation: 22 Sep 2006
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Handle: RePEc:rut:rutres:200616

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Related research
Keywords: conditional confidence intervals; Diffusions; integrated volatility; kernels; microstructure noise; realized volatility measures;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Other Model Applications

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Yacine Aït-Sahalia, 2005. "How Often to Sample a Continuous-Time Process in the Presence of Market Microstructure Noise," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(2), pages 351-416. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen & Neil Shephard, 2001. "Econometric Analysis of Realised Covariation: High Frequency Covariance, Regression and Correlation in Financial Economics," Economics Papers 2002-W13, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford, revised 18 Mar 2002. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Nour Meddahi, 2004. "Analytical Evaluation Of Volatility Forecasts," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1079-1110, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Neil Shephard, 2005. "Stochastic Volatility," Economics Papers 2005-W17, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford. [Downloadable!]
  5. Asger Lunde & Peter Reinhard Hansen, 2004. "Realized Variance and IID Market Microstructure Noise," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 526, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
  6. Ole BARNDORFF-NIELSEN & Svend Erik GRAVERSEN & Jean JACOD & Mark PODOLSKIJ & Neil SHEPHARD, 2004. "A Central Limit Theorem for Realised Power and Bipower Variations of Continuous Semimartingales," OFRC Working Papers Series 2004fe21, Oxford Financial Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Neil Shephard & Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen & Peter Reinhard Hansen & Asger Lunde, 2006. "Designing realised kernels to measure the ex-post variation of equity prices in the presence of noise," Economics Series Working Papers 264, University of Oxford, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Hansen, Peter R. & Lunde, Asger, 2006. "Realized Variance and Market Microstructure Noise," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 24, pages 127-161, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Yongmiao Hong, 2005. "Nonparametric Specification Testing for Continuous-Time Models with Applications to Term Structure of Interest Rates," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(1), pages 37-84. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Rodney C Wolff & Peter Hall & Qiwei Yao, 2006. "Methods for estimating a conditional distribution function," Rodney Wolff Papers 2006-11, School of Economics and Finance, Queensland University of Technology. [Downloadable!]
  11. Bollerslev, Tim & Zhou, Hao, 2002. "Estimating stochastic volatility diffusion using conditional moments of integrated volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 109(1), pages 33-65, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen & Shephard, 2002. "Econometric analysis of realized volatility and its use in estimating stochastic volatility models," Journal Of The Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 64(2), pages 253-280. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen, 2004. "Power and Bipower Variation with Stochastic Volatility and Jumps," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 2(1), pages 1-37. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Michael McAleer & Marcelo Cunha Medeiros, 2006. "Realized volatility: a review," Textos para discussão 531 Publication status: F, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil). [Downloadable!]
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  2. Valentina Corradi & Norman Swanson & Walter Distaso, 2006. "Predictive Density Estimators for Daily Volatility Based on the Use of Realized Measures," Departmental Working Papers 200620, Rutgers University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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